Thiago Moises vs.
Joel Alvarez
Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.
The men, measured.
Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.
What the numbers say.
Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.
Who did they actually beat?
Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.
Thiago Moises
| Competition tier | W | L |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin | 9 | 8 |
| Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) | 5 | 1 |
| Tier 3 — regional circuit | 5 | 1 |
Tier-weighted record quality: 1.03 · 14 tier-1/2 wins · 12 finish wins over 29 documented bouts
In the UFC: 3-7 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.6 wins over .500
Joel Alvarez
| Competition tier | W | L |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin | 8 | 3 |
| Tier 3 — regional circuit | 15 | 1 |
Tier-weighted record quality: 1.46 · 8 tier-1/2 wins · 22 finish wins over 27 documented bouts
In the UFC: 6-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.2 wins over .500
The stand-up battle.
Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.
Significant strikes — landed & absorbed
Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)
Thiago Moises
Distance 86.5% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 3.5% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 10.0% (norm 8.0%)
Joel Alvarez
Distance 82.0% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 7.7% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 10.4% (norm 8.0%)
What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)
Thiago Moises
Head 77.9% (norm 78.2%) · Body 9.1% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 12.9% (norm 7.9%)
Joel Alvarez
Head 79.1% (norm 78.2%) · Body 13.9% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 7.0% (norm 7.9%)
Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone
Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.
| Zone | Moises L/A | Acc | Lightweight med | Alvarez L/A | Acc | Lightweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 326 / 882 | 37.0% | 37.9% | 286 / 577 | 49.6% | 37.9% |
| In the clinch | 25 / 36 | 69.4% | 67.3% | 44 / 54 | 81.5% | 67.3% |
| On the ground | 82 / 102 | 80.4% | 69.1% | 54 / 73 | 74.0% | 69.1% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 274 / 795 | 34.5% | 35.0% | 265 / 557 | 47.6% | 35.0% |
| To the body | 56 / 93 | 60.2% | 69.1% | 76 / 98 | 77.6% | 69.1% |
| To the legs | 103 / 132 | 78.0% | 81.9% | 43 / 49 | 87.8% | 81.9% |
Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).
What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man
Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.
| Zone | vs Moises L/A | Opp acc | Lightweight med | vs Alvarez L/A | Opp acc | Lightweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 605 / 1372 | 44.1% | 38.9% | 213 / 496 | 42.9% | 38.9% |
| In the clinch | 78 / 106 | 73.6% | 68.6% | 5 / 8 | too few to rate | 68.6% |
| On the ground | 124 / 223 | 55.6% | 68.0% | 39 / 53 | 73.6% | 68.0% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 344 / 1119 | 30.7% | 35.1% | 129 / 366 | 35.2% | 35.1% |
| To the body | 256 / 352 | 72.7% | 68.1% | 62 / 107 | 57.9% | 68.1% |
| To the legs | 207 / 230 | 90.0% | 81.5% | 66 / 84 | 78.6% | 81.5% |
The ground war.
Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.
Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Moises has more cage time on record.