Stephen Thompson vs.
Geoff Neal
Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.
The men, measured.
Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.
What the numbers say.
Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.
Who did they actually beat?
Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.
Stephen Thompson
| Competition tier | W | L |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin | 12 | 9 |
| Tier 3 — regional circuit | 5 | 0 |
Tier-weighted record quality: 1.07 · 12 tier-1/2 wins · 9 finish wins over 27 documented bouts
In the UFC: 10-9 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.9 wins over .500
Geoff Neal
| Competition tier | W | L |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin | 9 | 6 |
| Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) | 3 | 0 |
| Tier 3 — regional circuit | 4 | 2 |
Tier-weighted record quality: 1.07 · 12 tier-1/2 wins · 12 finish wins over 24 documented bouts
In the UFC: 6-6 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +4.3 wins over .500
The stand-up battle.
Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.
Significant strikes — landed & absorbed
Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)
Stephen Thompson
Distance 93.2% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 4.2% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 2.6% (norm 8.1%)
Geoff Neal
Distance 86.9% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 8.0% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 5.1% (norm 8.1%)
What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)
Stephen Thompson
Head 79.0% (norm 78.2%) · Body 15.4% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 5.6% (norm 8.4%)
Geoff Neal
Head 90.5% (norm 78.2%) · Body 6.1% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 3.5% (norm 8.4%)
Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone
Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.
| Zone | Thompson L/A | Acc | Welterweight med | Neal L/A | Acc | Welterweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 1158 / 2618 | 44.2% | 38.6% | 566 / 1177 | 48.1% | 38.6% |
| In the clinch | 88 / 119 | 73.9% | 67.8% | 72 / 108 | 66.7% | 67.8% |
| On the ground | 47 / 73 | 64.4% | 67.2% | 49 / 69 | 71.0% | 67.2% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 857 / 2220 | 38.6% | 37.2% | 585 / 1225 | 47.8% | 37.2% |
| To the body | 305 / 432 | 70.6% | 70.7% | 58 / 82 | 70.7% | 70.7% |
| To the legs | 131 / 158 | 82.9% | 82.9% | 44 / 47 | 93.6% | 82.9% |
Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Welterweight: 182 fighters · Welterweight: 182 fighters).
What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man
Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.
| Zone | vs Thompson L/A | Opp acc | Welterweight med | vs Neal L/A | Opp acc | Welterweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 666 / 1731 | 38.5% | 39.0% | 684 / 1658 | 41.3% | 39.0% |
| In the clinch | 146 / 204 | 71.6% | 68.9% | 73 / 104 | 70.2% | 68.9% |
| On the ground | 147 / 191 | 77.0% | 68.0% | 7 / 13 | too few to rate | 68.0% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 512 / 1495 | 34.2% | 35.6% | 477 / 1409 | 33.9% | 35.6% |
| To the body | 172 / 276 | 62.3% | 69.6% | 208 / 280 | 74.3% | 69.6% |
| To the legs | 275 / 355 | 77.5% | 82.1% | 79 / 86 | 91.9% | 82.1% |
The ground war.
Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.
Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Thompson has more cage time on record.