BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Sergei Pavlovich vs.
Curtis Blaydes

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

9-3-0 Sergei Pavlovich · UFC
14-6-0 (1 NC) Curtis Blaydes · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

9-3-0
UFC record
14-6-0 (1 NC)
Heavyweight
Division (benchmark)
Heavyweight
34.2
AgeΔ 1.3 yrs
35.5
6'3"
HeightΔ 1"
6'4"
84"
ReachΔ 4"
80"
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
2.2
Layoff (months)Δ 1.6 mo
3.8
WWWLL
Last 5 (newest first)
LWLWL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Sergei Pavlovich carries real power — 1.89 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.28 Heavyweight norm.
Curtis Blaydes hunts takedowns — 5.12 per 15 minutes, vs a 0.95 Heavyweight norm.
Curtis Blaydes owns the mat — in control 45% of cage time, vs a 17% Heavyweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Sergei Pavlovich

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 93
Tier 3 — regional circuit 120

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.6 · 9 tier-1/2 wins · 16 finish wins over 24 documented bouts

In the UFC: 8-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +4.2 wins over .500

Curtis Blaydes

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 146
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 10
Tier 3 — regional circuit 40

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.44 · 15 tier-1/2 wins · 13 finish wins over 26 documented bouts

In the UFC: 11-6 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.6 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

2854.49/min · norm 3.36
Sig. strikes landed
8094.18/min · norm 3.36
2273.58/min · norm 3.19
Sig. strikes absorbed
5342.76/min · norm 3.19
44.7%norm 47.8%
Striking accuracy
52.1%norm 47.8%
56.2%norm 52.5%
Striking defense
53.9%norm 52.5%
81.89/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
20.16/15 · norm 0.28

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Sergei Pavlovich

Distance 87.3% (norm 79.5%) · Clinch 5.6% (norm 9.8%) · Ground 7.1% (norm 9.3%)

Curtis Blaydes

Distance 69.1% (norm 79.5%) · Clinch 11.4% (norm 9.8%) · Ground 19.5% (norm 9.3%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Sergei Pavlovich

Head 89.8% (norm 79.2%) · Body 7.2% (norm 11.5%) · Legs 3.0% (norm 7.6%)

Curtis Blaydes

Head 83.7% (norm 79.2%) · Body 6.6% (norm 11.5%) · Legs 9.7% (norm 7.6%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Pavlovich L/AAccHeavyweight med Blaydes L/AAccHeavyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 235 / 557 42.2% 40.1% 421 / 1073 39.2% 40.1%
In the clinch 19 / 36 52.8% 70.6% 145 / 177 81.9% 70.6%
On the ground 31 / 45 68.9% 70.2% 243 / 302 80.5% 70.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 237 / 573 41.4% 38.9% 585 / 1299 45.0% 38.9%
To the body 30 / 46 65.2% 76.8% 89 / 103 86.4% 76.8%
To the legs 18 / 19 too few to rate 87.8% 135 / 150 90.0% 87.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Heavyweight: 93 fighters · Heavyweight: 93 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Pavlovich L/AOpp accHeavyweight med vs Blaydes L/AOpp accHeavyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 204 / 490 41.6% 40.7% 427 / 1021 41.8% 40.7%
In the clinch 8 / 11 too few to rate 70.6% 82 / 108 75.9% 70.6%
On the ground 15 / 17 too few to rate 72.0% 25 / 30 83.3% 72.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 113 / 352 32.1% 38.8% 440 / 1037 42.4% 38.8%
To the body 38 / 61 62.3% 75.1% 64 / 87 73.6% 75.1%
To the legs 76 / 105 72.4% 84.4% 30 / 35 85.7% 84.4%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

225.0% acc · 0.47/15 · norm 0.95
Takedowns landed
6647.8% acc · 5.12/15 · norm 0.95
375.0% def · norm 64.3%
Takedowns stopped
735.0% def · norm 64.3%
7:3812.0% of cage time · norm 17.2%
Control time
87:4245.3% of cage time · norm 17.2%
1:590:28 per 15 · norm 2:28
Time under control
8:550:41 per 15 · norm 2:28
00.00/15 · norm 0.16
Submission attempts
00.00/15 · norm 0.16

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Blaydes has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.