BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Santiago Ponzinibbio vs.
Miguel Baeza

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

12-9-0 Santiago Ponzinibbio · UFC
3-4-0 Miguel Baeza · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

12-9-0
UFC record
3-4-0
Welterweight
Division (benchmark)
Welterweight
39.9
AgeΔ 5.9 yrs
34
6'0"
HeightΔ 2"
6'2"
73"
ReachΔ 1"
74"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
0.4
Layoff (months)Δ 25.5 mo
25.9
LLWLL
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLLW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Miguel Baeza is a submission threat — 1.99 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.45 Welterweight norm.
Miguel Baeza absorbs 5.91 sig. strikes per minute, well above the 3.06 Welterweight norm — hittable.
Santiago Ponzinibbio carries real power — 0.70 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.38 Welterweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Santiago Ponzinibbio

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 129
Tier 3 — regional circuit 161

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.12 · 12 tier-1/2 wins · 21 finish wins over 38 documented bouts

In the UFC: 10-8 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.9 wins over .500

Miguel Baeza

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 44
Tier 3 — regional circuit 60

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.09 · 4 tier-1/2 wins · 8 finish wins over 14 documented bouts

In the UFC: 2-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.4 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

10974.67/min · norm 3.17
Sig. strikes landed
2784.09/min · norm 3.17
11244.79/min · norm 3.06
Sig. strikes absorbed
4025.91/min · norm 3.06
40.8%norm 44.9%
Striking accuracy
47.8%norm 44.9%
61.1%norm 55.25%
Striking defense
49.3%norm 55.25%
110.70/15 · norm 0.38
Knockdowns
30.66/15 · norm 0.38

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Santiago Ponzinibbio

Distance 96.6% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 1.4% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 2.0% (norm 8.1%)

Miguel Baeza

Distance 94.5% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 1.4% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 4.1% (norm 8.1%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Santiago Ponzinibbio

Head 83.4% (norm 78.2%) · Body 8.9% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 7.7% (norm 8.4%)

Miguel Baeza

Head 65.6% (norm 78.2%) · Body 15.8% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 18.6% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Ponzinibbio L/AAccWelterweight med Baeza L/AAccWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1043 / 2599 40.1% 38.6% 254 / 550 46.2% 38.6%
In the clinch 20 / 37 54.1% 67.8% 6 / 8 too few to rate 67.8%
On the ground 34 / 55 61.8% 67.2% 18 / 24 too few to rate 67.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 775 / 2243 34.6% 37.2% 117 / 382 30.6% 37.2%
To the body 137 / 240 57.1% 70.7% 63 / 92 68.5% 70.7%
To the legs 185 / 208 88.9% 82.9% 98 / 108 90.7% 82.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Welterweight: 182 fighters · Welterweight: 182 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Ponzinibbio L/AOpp accWelterweight med vs Baeza L/AOpp accWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1043 / 2764 37.7% 39.0% 229 / 581 39.4% 39.0%
In the clinch 22 / 38 57.9% 68.9% 24 / 32 75.0% 68.9%
On the ground 59 / 89 66.3% 68.0% 149 / 180 82.8% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 669 / 2248 29.8% 35.6% 306 / 668 45.8% 35.6%
To the body 232 / 378 61.4% 69.6% 48 / 64 75.0% 69.6%
To the legs 223 / 265 84.2% 82.1% 48 / 61 78.7% 82.1%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

926.5% acc · 0.58/15 · norm 1.27
Takedowns landed
228.6% acc · 0.44/15 · norm 1.27
2771.1% def · norm 63.9%
Takedowns stopped
444.4% def · norm 63.9%
11:374.9% of cage time · norm 18.5%
Control time
2:534.2% of cage time · norm 18.5%
11:060:42 per 15 · norm 3:15
Time under control
12:092:40 per 15 · norm 3:15
00.00/15 · norm 0.45
Submission attempts
91.99/15 · norm 0.45

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Ponzinibbio has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.