BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Roxanne Modafferi vs.
Casey O'Neill

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

4-8-0 Roxanne Modafferi · UFC
6-2-0 Casey O'Neill · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

4-8-0
UFC record
6-2-0
Women's Flyweight
Division (benchmark)
Women's Flyweight
43.9
AgeΔ 15.1 yrs
28.8
5'7"
HeightΔ 1"
5'6"
69"
ReachΔ 0"
69"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
53.7
Layoff (months)Δ 49.4 mo
4.3
LLLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
WWLLW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Casey O'Neill is a submission threat — 0.70 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.32 Women's Flyweight norm.
Casey O'Neill outworks the Women's Flyweight division — 7.89 sig. strikes landed per minute, vs a 3.91 norm.
Roxanne Modafferi absorbs 5.72 sig. strikes per minute, well above the 3.81 Women's Flyweight norm — hittable.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Roxanne Modafferi

Full career not yet synced for Roxanne Modafferi — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 3-4 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.9 wins over .500

Casey O'Neill

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 62
Tier 3 — regional circuit 50

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.57 · 6 tier-1/2 wins · 6 finish wins over 13 documented bouts

In the UFC: 2-0 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.0 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

6223.39/min · norm 3.91
Sig. strikes landed
6777.89/min · norm 3.91
10495.72/min · norm 3.81
Sig. strikes absorbed
4755.53/min · norm 3.81
30.3%norm 44.9%
Striking accuracy
52.2%norm 44.9%
52.3%norm 55.95%
Striking defense
57.6%norm 55.95%
10.08/15 · norm 0.09
Knockdowns
10.17/15 · norm 0.09

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Roxanne Modafferi

Distance 93.4% (norm 87.6%) · Clinch 2.6% (norm 7.3%) · Ground 3.9% (norm 4.9%)

Casey O'Neill

Distance 87.0% (norm 87.6%) · Clinch 3.2% (norm 7.3%) · Ground 9.8% (norm 4.9%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Roxanne Modafferi

Head 92.2% (norm 78.1%) · Body 5.5% (norm 14.2%) · Legs 2.3% (norm 7.7%)

Casey O'Neill

Head 85.4% (norm 78.1%) · Body 9.3% (norm 14.2%) · Legs 5.2% (norm 7.7%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Modafferi L/AAccWomen's Flyweight med O'Neill L/AAccWomen's Flyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 532 / 1920 27.7% 39.9% 550 / 1129 48.7% 39.9%
In the clinch 35 / 54 64.8% 73.3% 31 / 41 75.6% 73.3%
On the ground 55 / 81 67.9% 74.7% 96 / 127 75.6% 74.7%
BY TARGET
To the head 523 / 1894 27.6% 34.9% 519 / 1108 46.8% 34.9%
To the body 62 / 114 54.4% 69.5% 94 / 121 77.7% 69.5%
To the legs 37 / 47 78.7% 82.6% 64 / 68 94.1% 82.6%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Women's Flyweight: 46 fighters · Women's Flyweight: 46 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Modafferi L/AOpp accWomen's Flyweight med vs O'Neill L/AOpp accWomen's Flyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 906 / 1995 45.4% 38.8% 383 / 1004 38.1% 38.8%
In the clinch 72 / 94 76.6% 74.1% 63 / 80 78.8% 74.1%
On the ground 71 / 109 65.1% 73.4% 29 / 36 80.6% 73.4%
BY TARGET
To the head 799 / 1888 42.3% 35.3% 353 / 975 36.2% 35.3%
To the body 126 / 181 69.6% 69.0% 88 / 108 81.5% 69.0%
To the legs 124 / 129 96.1% 78.7% 34 / 37 91.9% 78.7%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

1627.6% acc · 1.31/15 · norm 1.02
Takedowns landed
834.8% acc · 1.40/15 · norm 1.02
930.0% def · norm 58.95%
Takedowns stopped
1470.0% def · norm 58.95%
49:3527.0% of cage time · norm 19.15%
Control time
21:3025.0% of cage time · norm 19.15%
36:543:00 per 15 · norm 3:03
Time under control
10:031:45 per 15 · norm 3:03
10.08/15 · norm 0.32
Submission attempts
40.70/15 · norm 0.32

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Modafferi has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.