BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Renato Moicano vs.
Chris Duncan

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

13-7-0 Renato Moicano · UFC
6-2-0 Chris Duncan · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

13-7-0
UFC record
6-2-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
37
AgeΔ 4 yrs
33
5'11"
HeightΔ 1"
5'10"
72"
ReachΔ 1"
71"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
4.1
Layoff (months)Δ 0 mo
4.1
WLLWW
Last 5 (newest first)
LWWWW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Chris Duncan hunts takedowns — 2.80 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.38 Lightweight norm.
Chris Duncan carries real power — 0.43 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.25 Lightweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Renato Moicano

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 137
Tier 3 — regional circuit 80

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.29 · 13 tier-1/2 wins · 13 finish wins over 29 documented bouts

In the UFC: 9-7 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.6 wins over .500

Chris Duncan

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 103
Tier 3 — regional circuit 50

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.68 · 10 tier-1/2 wins · 11 finish wins over 18 documented bouts

In the UFC: 4-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.8 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

7714.10/min · norm 3.42
Sig. strikes landed
3214.60/min · norm 3.42
6683.55/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed
2954.23/min · norm 3.37
49.2%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
46.2%norm 43.5%
59.7%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
52.3%norm 56.3%
20.16/15 · norm 0.25
Knockdowns
20.43/15 · norm 0.25

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Renato Moicano

Distance 88.0% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 2.1% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 9.9% (norm 8.0%)

Chris Duncan

Distance 89.8% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 4.2% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 6.0% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Renato Moicano

Head 82.7% (norm 78.2%) · Body 7.3% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 10.0% (norm 7.9%)

Chris Duncan

Head 73.1% (norm 78.2%) · Body 14.7% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 12.2% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Moicano L/AAccLightweight med Duncan L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 636 / 1379 46.1% 37.9% 264 / 624 42.3% 37.9%
In the clinch 25 / 33 75.8% 67.3% 22 / 29 75.9% 67.3%
On the ground 110 / 155 71.0% 69.1% 35 / 42 83.3% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 563 / 1296 43.4% 35.0% 194 / 508 38.2% 35.0%
To the body 75 / 114 65.8% 69.1% 73 / 102 71.6% 69.1%
To the legs 133 / 157 84.7% 81.9% 54 / 85 63.5% 81.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Moicano L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Duncan L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 556 / 1502 37.0% 38.9% 256 / 567 45.1% 38.9%
In the clinch 27 / 36 75.0% 68.6% 33 / 43 76.7% 68.6%
On the ground 85 / 119 71.4% 68.0% 6 / 9 too few to rate 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 419 / 1331 31.5% 35.1% 217 / 520 41.7% 35.1%
To the body 123 / 176 69.9% 68.1% 34 / 49 69.4% 68.1%
To the legs 126 / 150 84.0% 81.5% 44 / 50 88.0% 81.5%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

2140.4% acc · 1.68/15 · norm 1.38
Takedowns landed
1340.6% acc · 2.80/15 · norm 1.38
2764.3% def · norm 64.0%
Takedowns stopped
1055.6% def · norm 64.0%
41:1121.9% of cage time · norm 19.5%
Control time
15:1421.8% of cage time · norm 19.5%
24:421:58 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control
6:461:27 per 15 · norm 2:46
70.56/15 · norm 0.49
Submission attempts
30.65/15 · norm 0.49

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Moicano has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.