BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Raphael Assuncao vs.
Matthew Lopez

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

12-7-0 Raphael Assuncao · UFC
2-4-0 Matthew Lopez · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

12-7-0
UFC record
2-4-0
Bantamweight
Division (benchmark)
Bantamweight
44
AgeΔ 4.5 yrs
39.5
5'5"
HeightΔ 2"
5'7"
66"
ReachΔ 3"
69"
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
40.9
Layoff (months)Δ 51 mo
91.9
LWLLL
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLWW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Matthew Lopez is a submission threat — 1.33 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.28 Bantamweight norm.
Matthew Lopez hunts takedowns — 3.32 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.12 Bantamweight norm.
Raphael Assuncao hunts takedowns — 1.59 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.12 Bantamweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Raphael Assuncao

Full career not yet synced for Raphael Assuncao — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 8-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.9 wins over .500

Matthew Lopez

Full career not yet synced for Matthew Lopez — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 2-4 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.2 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

7863.46/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
2123.13/min · norm 3.52
6252.76/min · norm 3.58
Sig. strikes absorbed
2533.73/min · norm 3.58
43.7%norm 43.4%
Striking accuracy
51.0%norm 43.4%
66.0%norm 56.6%
Striking defense
55.4%norm 56.6%
20.13/15 · norm 0.30
Knockdowns
00.00/15 · norm 0.30

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Raphael Assuncao

Distance 88.5% (norm 87.4%) · Clinch 6.4% (norm 5.7%) · Ground 5.0% (norm 6.5%)

Matthew Lopez

Distance 80.3% (norm 87.4%) · Clinch 2.6% (norm 5.7%) · Ground 17.1% (norm 6.5%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Raphael Assuncao

Head 71.9% (norm 77.4%) · Body 11.0% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 17.2% (norm 8.4%)

Matthew Lopez

Head 77.4% (norm 77.4%) · Body 16.6% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 6.0% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Assuncao L/AAccBantamweight med Lopez L/AAccBantamweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 639 / 1593 40.1% 39.0% 150 / 334 44.9% 39.0%
In the clinch 80 / 116 69.0% 68.7% 7 / 11 too few to rate 68.7%
On the ground 67 / 90 74.4% 70.2% 55 / 71 77.5% 70.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 418 / 1293 32.3% 34.9% 141 / 322 43.8% 34.9%
To the body 126 / 197 64.0% 66.8% 48 / 69 69.6% 66.8%
To the legs 242 / 309 78.3% 79.4% 23 / 25 92.0% 79.4%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Bantamweight: 117 fighters · Bantamweight: 117 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Assuncao L/AOpp accBantamweight med vs Lopez L/AOpp accBantamweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 578 / 1761 32.8% 39.3% 201 / 497 40.4% 39.3%
In the clinch 29 / 52 55.8% 70.4% 18 / 24 too few to rate 70.4%
On the ground 18 / 23 too few to rate 72.4% 34 / 46 73.9% 72.4%
BY TARGET
To the head 274 / 1322 20.7% 34.9% 152 / 432 35.2% 34.9%
To the body 158 / 252 62.7% 66.0% 38 / 61 62.3% 66.0%
To the legs 193 / 262 73.7% 79.1% 63 / 74 85.1% 79.1%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

2438.7% acc · 1.59/15 · norm 1.12
Takedowns landed
1560.0% acc · 3.32/15 · norm 1.12
3078.9% def · norm 66.7%
Takedowns stopped
1071.4% def · norm 66.7%
29:2913.0% of cage time · norm 17.4%
Control time
17:1025.3% of cage time · norm 17.4%
15:161:00 per 15 · norm 2:24
Time under control
10:252:18 per 15 · norm 2:24
20.13/15 · norm 0.28
Submission attempts
61.33/15 · norm 0.28

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Assuncao has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.