Rafael Alves vs.
Drew Dober
Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.
The men, measured.
Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.
What the numbers say.
Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.
Who did they actually beat?
Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.
Rafael Alves
Full career not yet synced for Rafael Alves — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).
In the UFC: 1-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.8 wins over .500
Drew Dober
| Competition tier | W | L |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin | 16 | 11 |
| Tier 3 — regional circuit | 13 | 4 |
Tier-weighted record quality: 0.97 · 16 tier-1/2 wins · 22 finish wins over 45 documented bouts
In the UFC: 7-7 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.9 wins over .500
The stand-up battle.
Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.
Significant strikes — landed & absorbed
Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)
Rafael Alves
Distance 92.5% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 1.9% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 5.7% (norm 8.0%)
Drew Dober
Distance 87.8% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 7.0% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 5.2% (norm 8.0%)
What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)
Rafael Alves
Head 78.0% (norm 78.2%) · Body 11.9% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 10.1% (norm 7.9%)
Drew Dober
Head 79.3% (norm 78.2%) · Body 13.5% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 7.2% (norm 7.9%)
Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone
Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.
| Zone | Alves L/A | Acc | Lightweight med | Dober L/A | Acc | Lightweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 71 / 147 | 48.3% | 37.9% | 790 / 2128 | 37.1% | 37.9% |
| In the clinch | 3 / 3 | too few to rate | 67.3% | 111 / 170 | 65.3% | 67.3% |
| On the ground | 5 / 9 | too few to rate | 69.1% | 93 / 125 | 74.4% | 69.1% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 49 / 124 | 39.5% | 35.0% | 628 / 1922 | 32.7% | 35.0% |
| To the body | 17 / 19 | too few to rate | 69.1% | 225 / 326 | 69.0% | 69.1% |
| To the legs | 13 / 16 | too few to rate | 81.9% | 141 / 175 | 80.6% | 81.9% |
Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).
What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man
Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.
| Zone | vs Alves L/A | Opp acc | Lightweight med | vs Dober L/A | Opp acc | Lightweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 101 / 276 | 36.6% | 38.9% | 771 / 1793 | 43.0% | 38.9% |
| In the clinch | 0 / 0 | too few to rate | 68.6% | 87 / 121 | 71.9% | 68.6% |
| On the ground | 39 / 59 | 66.1% | 68.0% | 102 / 132 | 77.3% | 68.0% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 87 / 261 | 33.3% | 35.1% | 681 / 1668 | 40.8% | 35.1% |
| To the body | 37 / 52 | 71.2% | 68.1% | 197 / 279 | 70.6% | 68.1% |
| To the legs | 16 / 22 | too few to rate | 81.5% | 82 / 99 | 82.8% | 81.5% |
The ground war.
Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.
Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Dober has more cage time on record.