BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Paul Kelly vs.
Troy Mandaloniz

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

5-4-0 Paul Kelly · UFC
1-1-0 Troy Mandaloniz · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

5-4-0
UFC record
1-1-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Welterweight
41.9
AgeΔ 4.6 yrs
46.5
5'9"
HeightΔ 0"
5'9"
70"
Reach
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
186
Layoff (months)Δ 23.4 mo
209.4
LWLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
LW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Troy Mandaloniz carries real power — 1.55 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.38 Welterweight norm.
Paul Kelly is a submission threat — 1.49 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.49 Lightweight norm.
Troy Mandaloniz hunts takedowns — 3.10 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.27 Welterweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Paul Kelly

Full career not yet synced for Paul Kelly — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 2-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.6 wins over .500

Troy Mandaloniz

Full career not yet synced for Troy Mandaloniz — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-0 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.0 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

3253.22/min · norm 3.42
Sig. strikes landed
683.52/min · norm 3.17
2632.61/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed
914.71/min · norm 3.06
38.0%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
56.7%norm 44.9%
59.5%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
63.0%norm 55.25%
10.15/15 · norm 0.25
Knockdowns
21.55/15 · norm 0.38

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Paul Kelly

Distance 56.9% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 9.6% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 33.5% (norm 8.0%)

Troy Mandaloniz

Distance 65.0% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 26.7% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 8.3% (norm 8.1%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Paul Kelly

Head 88.9% (norm 78.2%) · Body 6.9% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 4.2% (norm 7.9%)

Troy Mandaloniz

Head 79.2% (norm 78.2%) · Body 6.7% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 14.2% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Kelly L/AAccLightweight med Mandaloniz L/AAccWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 112 / 487 23.0% 37.9% 41 / 78 52.6% 38.6%
In the clinch 46 / 82 56.1% 67.3% 21 / 32 65.6% 67.8%
On the ground 167 / 287 58.2% 69.1% 6 / 10 too few to rate 67.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 251 / 761 33.0% 35.0% 47 / 95 49.5% 37.2%
To the body 48 / 59 81.4% 69.1% 5 / 8 too few to rate 70.7%
To the legs 26 / 36 72.2% 81.9% 16 / 17 too few to rate 82.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Welterweight: 182 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Kelly L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Mandaloniz L/AOpp accWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 168 / 482 34.9% 38.9% 48 / 158 30.4% 39.0%
In the clinch 35 / 63 55.6% 68.6% 28 / 50 56.0% 68.9%
On the ground 60 / 105 57.1% 68.0% 15 / 38 39.5% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 166 / 517 32.1% 35.1% 57 / 205 27.8% 35.6%
To the body 44 / 63 69.8% 68.1% 20 / 25 80.0% 69.6%
To the legs 53 / 70 75.7% 81.5% 14 / 16 too few to rate 82.1%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

960.0% acc · 1.34/15 · norm 1.38
Takedowns landed
466.7% acc · 3.10/15 · norm 1.27
830.8% def · norm 64.0%
Takedowns stopped
457.1% def · norm 63.9%
39:5839.6% of cage time · norm 19.5%
Control time
4:2322.7% of cage time · norm 18.5%
23:383:30 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control
6:425:11 per 15 · norm 3:15
101.49/15 · norm 0.49
Submission attempts
00.00/15 · norm 0.45

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Kelly has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.