BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Patrick Cummins vs.
Roger Narvaez

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

6-7-0 Patrick Cummins · UFC
1-2-0 Roger Narvaez · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

6-7-0
UFC record
1-2-0
Light Heavyweight
Division (benchmark)
Middleweight
45
AgeΔ 3 yrs
42
6'2"
HeightΔ 1"
6'3"
76"
Reach
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
86.6
Layoff (months)Δ 50.2 mo
136.8
LLLWW
Last 5 (newest first)
LWL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Patrick Cummins hunts takedowns — 4.49 per 15 minutes, vs a 0.87 Light Heavyweight norm.
Patrick Cummins owns the mat — in control 40% of cage time, vs a 16% Light Heavyweight norm.
Roger Narvaez is a submission threat — 0.95 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.47 Middleweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Patrick Cummins

Full career not yet synced for Patrick Cummins — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 1-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.0 wins over .500

Roger Narvaez

Full career not yet synced for Roger Narvaez — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 1-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.0 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

4984.26/min · norm 3.41
Sig. strikes landed
672.12/min · norm 3.25
3913.35/min · norm 3.35
Sig. strikes absorbed
1053.32/min · norm 3.20
50.8%norm 48.3%
Striking accuracy
37.0%norm 47.4%
55.9%norm 52.9%
Striking defense
64.8%norm 53.8%
00.00/15 · norm 0.40
Knockdowns
10.47/15 · norm 0.32

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Patrick Cummins

Distance 61.5% (norm 80.5%) · Clinch 12.2% (norm 8.6%) · Ground 26.3% (norm 10.4%)

Roger Narvaez

Distance 89.5% (norm 79.4%) · Clinch 1.7% (norm 9.1%) · Ground 8.8% (norm 10.3%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Patrick Cummins

Head 88.4% (norm 79.2%) · Body 6.9% (norm 11.7%) · Legs 4.7% (norm 9.7%)

Roger Narvaez

Head 79.0% (norm 78.0%) · Body 12.7% (norm 13.4%) · Legs 8.3% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Cummins L/AAccLight Heavyweight med Narvaez L/AAccMiddleweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 224 / 603 37.1% 41.4% 55 / 162 34.0% 40.5%
In the clinch 85 / 120 70.8% 70.9% 3 / 3 too few to rate 70.3%
On the ground 189 / 258 73.3% 72.3% 9 / 16 too few to rate 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 409 / 867 47.2% 38.9% 42 / 143 29.4% 38.9%
To the body 51 / 68 75.0% 71.9% 16 / 23 too few to rate 71.7%
To the legs 38 / 46 82.6% 81.8% 9 / 15 too few to rate 83.3%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Light Heavyweight: 93 fighters · Middleweight: 174 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Cummins L/AOpp accLight Heavyweight med vs Narvaez L/AOpp accMiddleweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 281 / 739 38.0% 40.4% 57 / 228 25.0% 39.5%
In the clinch 57 / 82 69.5% 68.7% 8 / 12 too few to rate 70.9%
On the ground 53 / 65 81.5% 70.4% 40 / 58 69.0% 69.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 326 / 798 40.9% 37.5% 68 / 228 29.8% 37.9%
To the body 45 / 61 73.8% 72.3% 19 / 43 44.2% 71.3%
To the legs 20 / 27 74.1% 83.0% 18 / 27 66.7% 82.1%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

3541.2% acc · 4.49/15 · norm 0.87
Takedowns landed
00.0% acc · 0.00/15 · norm 1.42
628.6% def · norm 66.7%
Takedowns stopped
550.0% def · norm 63.1%
47:0640.3% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
3:4211.7% of cage time · norm 19.75%
11:321:28 per 15 · norm 2:48
Time under control
6:142:57 per 15 · norm 3:00
10.13/15 · norm 0.27
Submission attempts
20.95/15 · norm 0.47

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Cummins has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.