BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Paige VanZant vs.
Rachael Ostovich

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

5-4-0 Paige VanZant · UFC
1-3-0 Rachael Ostovich · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

5-4-0
UFC record
1-3-0
Women's Strawweight
Division (benchmark)
Women's Flyweight
32
AgeΔ 3 yrs
35
5'4"
HeightΔ 1"
5'3"
65"
ReachΔ 3"
62"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
72.8
Layoff (months)Δ 4.6 mo
68.2
LWLLW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Paige VanZant is a submission threat — 0.96 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.29 Women's Strawweight norm.
Rachael Ostovich is a submission threat — 0.81 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.32 Women's Flyweight norm.
Rachael Ostovich hunts takedowns — 2.03 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.02 Women's Flyweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Paige VanZant

Full career not yet synced for Paige VanZant — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 2-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.8 wins over .500

Rachael Ostovich

Full career not yet synced for Rachael Ostovich — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record -0.2 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

3153.35/min · norm 3.77
Sig. strikes landed
942.54/min · norm 3.91
2472.62/min · norm 3.94
Sig. strikes absorbed
1473.97/min · norm 3.81
52.1%norm 44.5%
Striking accuracy
43.1%norm 44.9%
42.6%norm 54.4%
Striking defense
57.8%norm 55.95%
10.16/15 · norm 0.00
Knockdowns
00.00/15 · norm 0.09

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Paige VanZant

Distance 50.1% (norm 86.9%) · Clinch 26.9% (norm 7.7%) · Ground 23.0% (norm 5.0%)

Rachael Ostovich

Distance 93.1% (norm 87.6%) · Clinch 5.5% (norm 7.3%) · Ground 1.4% (norm 4.9%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Paige VanZant

Head 68.4% (norm 76.4%) · Body 22.1% (norm 14.9%) · Legs 9.4% (norm 9.1%)

Rachael Ostovich

Head 74.8% (norm 78.1%) · Body 21.6% (norm 14.2%) · Legs 3.7% (norm 7.7%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone VanZant L/AAccWomen's Strawweight med Ostovich L/AAccWomen's Flyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 109 / 303 36.0% 38.3% 81 / 203 39.9% 39.9%
In the clinch 104 / 163 63.8% 72.6% 11 / 12 too few to rate 73.3%
On the ground 102 / 139 73.4% 75.0% 2 / 3 too few to rate 74.7%
BY TARGET
To the head 197 / 414 47.6% 35.4% 56 / 163 34.4% 34.9%
To the body 79 / 134 59.0% 69.3% 33 / 47 70.2% 69.5%
To the legs 39 / 57 68.4% 77.9% 5 / 8 too few to rate 82.6%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Women's Strawweight: 63 fighters · Women's Flyweight: 46 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs VanZant L/AOpp accWomen's Strawweight med vs Ostovich L/AOpp accWomen's Flyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 119 / 243 49.0% 39.7% 87 / 257 33.9% 38.8%
In the clinch 79 / 118 66.9% 71.5% 15 / 27 55.6% 74.1%
On the ground 49 / 69 71.0% 74.4% 45 / 64 70.3% 73.4%
BY TARGET
To the head 157 / 310 50.6% 36.0% 114 / 303 37.6% 35.3%
To the body 70 / 97 72.2% 68.4% 18 / 29 62.1% 69.0%
To the legs 20 / 23 too few to rate 79.1% 15 / 16 too few to rate 78.7%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

833.3% acc · 1.27/15 · norm 1.10
Takedowns landed
583.3% acc · 2.03/15 · norm 1.02
1134.4% def · norm 64.1%
Takedowns stopped
1466.7% def · norm 58.95%
33:3835.7% of cage time · norm 19.4%
Control time
1:404.5% of cage time · norm 19.15%
32:575:14 per 15 · norm 3:00
Time under control
16:026:29 per 15 · norm 3:03
60.96/15 · norm 0.29
Submission attempts
20.81/15 · norm 0.32

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — VanZant has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.