BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Nate Diaz vs.
Conor McGregor

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

16-11-0 Nate Diaz · UFC
10-5-0 Conor McGregor · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

16-11-0
UFC record
10-5-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Featherweight
41.3
AgeΔ 3.2 yrs
38.1
6'0"
HeightΔ 3"
5'9"
76"
ReachΔ 2"
74"
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
46.8
Layoff (months)Δ 45.9 mo
0.9
WLLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLWL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Conor McGregor carries real power — 1.72 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.29 Featherweight norm.
Nate Diaz is a submission threat — 1.16 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.49 Lightweight norm.
Conor McGregor outworks the Featherweight division — 5.27 sig. strikes landed per minute, vs a 3.54 norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Nate Diaz

Full career not yet synced for Nate Diaz — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 10-10 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.4 wins over .500

Conor McGregor

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 105
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 41
Tier 3 — regional circuit 81

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.31 · 14 tier-1/2 wins · 20 finish wins over 29 documented bouts

In the UFC: 10-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +7.1 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

15444.58/min · norm 3.42
Sig. strikes landed
5995.27/min · norm 3.54
13484.00/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed
5364.71/min · norm 3.47
44.6%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
49.5%norm 45.0%
52.9%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
53.9%norm 54.85%
40.18/15 · norm 0.25
Knockdowns
131.72/15 · norm 0.29

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Nate Diaz

Distance 83.2% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 13.8% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 3.0% (norm 8.0%)

Conor McGregor

Distance 84.5% (norm 85.7%) · Clinch 6.2% (norm 6.1%) · Ground 9.3% (norm 6.5%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Nate Diaz

Head 83.5% (norm 78.2%) · Body 11.5% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 5.1% (norm 7.9%)

Conor McGregor

Head 78.8% (norm 77.4%) · Body 13.1% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 8.2% (norm 7.8%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Diaz L/AAccLightweight med McGregor L/AAccFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1132 / 2883 39.3% 37.9% 461 / 1022 45.1% 40.9%
In the clinch 342 / 477 71.7% 67.3% 61 / 75 81.3% 70.8%
On the ground 70 / 104 67.3% 69.1% 77 / 113 68.1% 69.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 1146 / 2891 39.6% 35.0% 419 / 953 44.0% 37.2%
To the body 263 / 397 66.2% 69.1% 102 / 158 64.6% 68.2%
To the legs 135 / 176 76.7% 81.9% 78 / 99 78.8% 80.7%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Featherweight: 126 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Diaz L/AOpp accLightweight med vs McGregor L/AOpp accFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 874 / 2115 41.3% 38.9% 336 / 864 38.9% 39.2%
In the clinch 217 / 324 67.0% 68.6% 96 / 142 67.6% 70.3%
On the ground 257 / 420 61.2% 68.0% 104 / 156 66.7% 69.4%
BY TARGET
To the head 772 / 2096 36.8% 35.1% 372 / 913 40.7% 35.9%
To the body 246 / 365 67.4% 68.1% 88 / 136 64.7% 67.9%
To the legs 330 / 398 82.9% 81.5% 76 / 113 67.3% 81.5%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

1826.5% acc · 0.80/15 · norm 1.38
Takedowns landed
555.6% acc · 0.66/15 · norm 1.19
4343.9% def · norm 64.0%
Takedowns stopped
2266.7% def · norm 61.5%
47:1814.0% of cage time · norm 19.5%
Control time
13:5112.2% of cage time · norm 16.7%
97:414:20 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control
31:344:09 per 15 · norm 3:12
261.16/15 · norm 0.49
Submission attempts
10.13/15 · norm 0.46

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Diaz has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.