Myktybek Orolbai vs.
Mateusz Rebecki
Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.
The men, measured.
Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.
What the numbers say.
Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.
Who did they actually beat?
Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.
Myktybek Orolbai
| Competition tier | W | L |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin | 5 | 1 |
| Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) | 3 | 0 |
| Tier 3 — regional circuit | 7 | 1 |
Tier-weighted record quality: 1.54 · 8 tier-1/2 wins · 12 finish wins over 18 documented bouts
In the UFC: 4-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.2 wins over .500
Mateusz Rebecki
| Competition tier | W | L |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin | 6 | 4 |
| Tier 3 — regional circuit | 15 | 1 |
Tier-weighted record quality: 1.2 · 6 tier-1/2 wins · 17 finish wins over 26 documented bouts
In the UFC: 3-4 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.2 wins over .500
The stand-up battle.
Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.
Significant strikes — landed & absorbed
Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)
Myktybek Orolbai
Distance 76.6% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 2.0% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 21.3% (norm 8.1%)
Mateusz Rebecki
Distance 82.1% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 3.0% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 14.8% (norm 8.0%)
What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)
Myktybek Orolbai
Head 82.7% (norm 78.2%) · Body 9.1% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 8.2% (norm 8.4%)
Mateusz Rebecki
Head 82.3% (norm 78.2%) · Body 10.5% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 7.2% (norm 7.9%)
Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone
Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.
| Zone | Orolbai L/A | Acc | Welterweight med | Rebecki L/A | Acc | Lightweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 114 / 262 | 43.5% | 38.6% | 403 / 947 | 42.6% | 37.9% |
| In the clinch | 6 / 7 | too few to rate | 67.8% | 27 / 35 | 77.1% | 67.3% |
| On the ground | 51 / 73 | 69.9% | 67.2% | 140 / 171 | 81.9% | 69.1% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 128 / 283 | 45.2% | 37.2% | 411 / 949 | 43.3% | 35.0% |
| To the body | 22 / 31 | 71.0% | 70.7% | 83 / 121 | 68.6% | 69.1% |
| To the legs | 21 / 28 | 75.0% | 82.9% | 76 / 83 | 91.6% | 81.9% |
Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Welterweight: 182 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).
What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man
Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.
| Zone | vs Orolbai L/A | Opp acc | Welterweight med | vs Rebecki L/A | Opp acc | Lightweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 122 / 285 | 42.8% | 39.0% | 385 / 913 | 42.2% | 38.9% |
| In the clinch | 19 / 25 | 76.0% | 68.9% | 18 / 28 | 64.3% | 68.6% |
| On the ground | 25 / 29 | 86.2% | 68.0% | 47 / 58 | 81.0% | 68.0% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 101 / 258 | 39.1% | 35.6% | 338 / 820 | 41.2% | 35.1% |
| To the body | 34 / 46 | 73.9% | 69.6% | 88 / 149 | 59.1% | 68.1% |
| To the legs | 31 / 35 | 88.6% | 82.1% | 24 / 30 | 80.0% | 81.5% |
The ground war.
Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.
Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Rebecki has more cage time on record.