BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Myktybek Orolbai vs.
Jack Hermansson

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

5-1-0 Myktybek Orolbai · UFC
11-8-0 Jack Hermansson · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

5-1-0
UFC record
11-8-0
Welterweight
Division (benchmark)
Middleweight
28.5
AgeΔ 9.7 yrs
38.2
5'10"
HeightΔ 3"
6'1"
74"
ReachΔ 3"
77"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
4.8
Layoff (months)Δ 3.6 mo
8.4
WWWLW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLWLW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Myktybek Orolbai hunts takedowns — 8.77 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.27 Welterweight norm.
Myktybek Orolbai owns the mat — in control 54% of cage time, vs a 18% Welterweight norm.
Jack Hermansson outworks the Middleweight division — 5.15 sig. strikes landed per minute, vs a 3.25 norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Myktybek Orolbai

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 51
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 30
Tier 3 — regional circuit 71

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.54 · 8 tier-1/2 wins · 12 finish wins over 18 documented bouts

In the UFC: 4-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.2 wins over .500

Jack Hermansson

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 1110
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 70
Tier 3 — regional circuit 60

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.18 · 18 tier-1/2 wins · 17 finish wins over 34 documented bouts

In the UFC: 7-8 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.9 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

1712.78/min · norm 3.17
Sig. strikes landed
10485.15/min · norm 3.25
1662.70/min · norm 3.06
Sig. strikes absorbed
7573.72/min · norm 3.20
50.0%norm 44.9%
Striking accuracy
45.3%norm 47.4%
51.0%norm 55.25%
Striking defense
57.0%norm 53.8%
20.49/15 · norm 0.38
Knockdowns
00.00/15 · norm 0.32

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Myktybek Orolbai

Distance 76.6% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 2.0% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 21.3% (norm 8.1%)

Jack Hermansson

Distance 86.2% (norm 79.4%) · Clinch 4.5% (norm 9.1%) · Ground 9.3% (norm 10.3%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Myktybek Orolbai

Head 82.7% (norm 78.2%) · Body 9.1% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 8.2% (norm 8.4%)

Jack Hermansson

Head 73.5% (norm 78.0%) · Body 13.6% (norm 13.4%) · Legs 12.8% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Orolbai L/AAccWelterweight med Hermansson L/AAccMiddleweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 114 / 262 43.5% 38.6% 812 / 1997 40.7% 40.5%
In the clinch 6 / 7 too few to rate 67.8% 77 / 104 74.0% 70.3%
On the ground 51 / 73 69.9% 67.2% 159 / 215 74.0% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 128 / 283 45.2% 37.2% 591 / 1703 34.7% 38.9%
To the body 22 / 31 71.0% 70.7% 208 / 316 65.8% 71.7%
To the legs 21 / 28 75.0% 82.9% 249 / 297 83.8% 83.3%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Welterweight: 182 fighters · Middleweight: 174 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Orolbai L/AOpp accWelterweight med vs Hermansson L/AOpp accMiddleweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 122 / 285 42.8% 39.0% 655 / 1614 40.6% 39.5%
In the clinch 19 / 25 76.0% 68.9% 44 / 64 68.8% 70.9%
On the ground 25 / 29 86.2% 68.0% 58 / 82 70.7% 69.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 101 / 258 39.1% 35.6% 544 / 1453 37.4% 37.9%
To the body 34 / 46 73.9% 69.6% 169 / 243 69.5% 71.3%
To the legs 31 / 35 88.6% 82.1% 44 / 64 68.8% 82.1%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

3659.0% acc · 8.77/15 · norm 1.27
Takedowns landed
2029.9% acc · 1.48/15 · norm 1.42
440.0% def · norm 63.9%
Takedowns stopped
2180.8% def · norm 63.1%
32:5953.6% of cage time · norm 18.5%
Control time
35:0317.2% of cage time · norm 19.75%
5:391:22 per 15 · norm 3:15
Time under control
21:371:35 per 15 · norm 3:00
20.49/15 · norm 0.45
Submission attempts
50.37/15 · norm 0.47

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Hermansson has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.