BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Melvin Guillard vs.
Nate Diaz

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

12-9-0 (1 NC) Melvin Guillard · UFC
16-11-0 Nate Diaz · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

12-9-0 (1 NC)
UFC record
16-11-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
43
AgeΔ 2 yrs
41
5'9"
HeightΔ 3"
6'0"
71"
ReachΔ 5"
76"
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
148.9
Layoff (months)Δ 102.1 mo
46.8
LNCWLL
Last 5 (newest first)
WLLWL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Melvin Guillard carries real power — 1.33 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.25 Lightweight norm.
Nate Diaz is a submission threat — 1.16 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.49 Lightweight norm.
Melvin Guillard is hard to hit — absorbs 1.83 sig. strikes per minute, vs a 3.37 Lightweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Melvin Guillard

Full career not yet synced for Melvin Guillard — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 4-6 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.3 wins over .500

Nate Diaz

Full career not yet synced for Nate Diaz — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 10-10 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.4 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

4483.06/min · norm 3.42
Sig. strikes landed
15444.58/min · norm 3.42
2671.83/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed
13484.00/min · norm 3.37
39.7%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
44.6%norm 43.5%
68.1%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
52.9%norm 56.3%
131.33/15 · norm 0.25
Knockdowns
40.18/15 · norm 0.25

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Melvin Guillard

Distance 79.4% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 8.5% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 12.1% (norm 8.0%)

Nate Diaz

Distance 83.2% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 13.8% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 3.0% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Melvin Guillard

Head 82.3% (norm 78.2%) · Body 11.9% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 5.9% (norm 7.9%)

Nate Diaz

Head 83.5% (norm 78.2%) · Body 11.5% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 5.1% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Guillard L/AAccLightweight med Diaz L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 312 / 896 34.8% 37.9% 1132 / 2883 39.3% 37.9%
In the clinch 58 / 96 60.4% 67.3% 342 / 477 71.7% 67.3%
On the ground 78 / 136 57.4% 69.1% 70 / 104 67.3% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 300 / 928 32.3% 35.0% 1146 / 2891 39.6% 35.0%
To the body 90 / 134 67.2% 69.1% 263 / 397 66.2% 69.1%
To the legs 58 / 66 87.9% 81.9% 135 / 176 76.7% 81.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Guillard L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Diaz L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 219 / 732 29.9% 38.9% 874 / 2115 41.3% 38.9%
In the clinch 36 / 75 48.0% 68.6% 217 / 324 67.0% 68.6%
On the ground 12 / 31 38.7% 68.0% 257 / 420 61.2% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 123 / 604 20.4% 35.1% 772 / 2096 36.8% 35.1%
To the body 59 / 111 53.2% 68.1% 246 / 365 67.4% 68.1%
To the legs 85 / 123 69.1% 81.5% 330 / 398 82.9% 81.5%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

1466.7% acc · 1.44/15 · norm 1.38
Takedowns landed
1826.5% acc · 0.80/15 · norm 1.38
5865.2% def · norm 64.0%
Takedowns stopped
4343.9% def · norm 64.0%
12:558.8% of cage time · norm 19.5%
Control time
47:1814.0% of cage time · norm 19.5%
34:063:29 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control
97:414:20 per 15 · norm 2:46
20.21/15 · norm 0.49
Submission attempts
261.16/15 · norm 0.49

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Diaz has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.