BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Matthew Semelsberger vs.
Carlton Minus

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

5-6-0 Matthew Semelsberger · UFC
0-2-0 Carlton Minus · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

5-6-0
UFC record
0-2-0
Welterweight
Division (benchmark)
Catch Weight
33
AgeΔ 0 yrs
33
6'1"
HeightΔ 3"
5'10"
75"
ReachΔ 0"
75"
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
20.9
Layoff (months)Δ 46.6 mo
67.5
LLLLW
Last 5 (newest first)
LL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Matthew Semelsberger carries real power — 1.26 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.38 Welterweight norm.
Matthew Semelsberger absorbs 4.24 sig. strikes per minute, well above the 3.06 Welterweight norm — hittable.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Matthew Semelsberger

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 56
Tier 3 — regional circuit 62

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.55 · 5 tier-1/2 wins · 7 finish wins over 19 documented bouts

In the UFC: 1-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.6 wins over .500

Carlton Minus

Full career not yet synced for Carlton Minus — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-0 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record -0.5 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

4493.77/min · norm 3.17
Sig. strikes landed
1053.50/min · norm —
5044.24/min · norm 3.06
Sig. strikes absorbed
1494.97/min · norm —
43.0%norm 44.9%
Striking accuracy
40.1%norm —
54.1%norm 55.25%
Striking defense
50.3%norm —
101.26/15 · norm 0.38
Knockdowns
00.00/15 · norm —

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Matthew Semelsberger

Distance 85.8% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 4.9% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 9.3% (norm 8.1%)

Carlton Minus

Distance 98.5% (norm —) · Clinch 1.1% (norm —) · Ground 0.4% (norm —)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Matthew Semelsberger

Head 78.7% (norm 78.2%) · Body 12.0% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 9.4% (norm 8.4%)

Carlton Minus

Head 87.4% (norm —) · Body 6.9% (norm —) · Legs 5.7% (norm —)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Semelsberger L/AAccWelterweight med Minus L/AAccCatch Weight med
BY POSITION
At distance 359 / 897 40.0% 38.6% 104 / 258 40.3%
In the clinch 36 / 51 70.6% 67.8% 1 / 3 too few to rate
On the ground 54 / 97 55.7% 67.2% 0 / 1 too few to rate
BY TARGET
To the head 290 / 822 35.3% 37.2% 79 / 229 34.5%
To the body 76 / 125 60.8% 70.7% 12 / 18 too few to rate
To the legs 83 / 98 84.7% 82.9% 14 / 15 too few to rate

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Welterweight: 182 fighters · Catch Weight: 0 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Semelsberger L/AOpp accWelterweight med vs Minus L/AOpp accCatch Weight med
BY POSITION
At distance 418 / 970 43.1% 39.0% 124 / 268 46.3%
In the clinch 40 / 55 72.7% 68.9% 8 / 9 too few to rate
On the ground 46 / 74 62.2% 68.0% 17 / 23 too few to rate
BY TARGET
To the head 353 / 908 38.9% 35.6% 102 / 243 42.0%
To the body 81 / 115 70.4% 69.6% 19 / 28 67.9%
To the legs 70 / 76 92.1% 82.1% 28 / 29 96.6%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

857.1% acc · 1.01/15 · norm 1.27
Takedowns landed
00.0% acc · 0.00/15 · norm —
1645.7% def · norm 63.9%
Takedowns stopped
1058.8% def · norm —
20:3017.2% of cage time · norm 18.5%
Control time
0:000.0% of cage time · norm —
27:413:29 per 15 · norm 3:15
Time under control
11:435:51 per 15 · norm —
30.38/15 · norm 0.45
Submission attempts
00.00/15 · norm —

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Semelsberger has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.