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Mateusz Rebecki vs. Myktybek Orolbai

UFC 5-4-0 vs. 5-2-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
5-4-0
UFC record
5-2-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Welterweight
33
AgeΔ 5 yrs
28
5'7"
HeightΔ 3"
5'10"
66"
ReachΔ 8"
74"
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
2.6
Layoff (months)Δ 0.4 mo
2.2
WLLLW
Last 5 (newest first)
LWWWL

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Myktybek Orolbai hunts takedowns — 8.22 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.31 Welterweight norm.
Myktybek Orolbai owns the mat — in control 54% of cage time, vs a 18% Welterweight norm.
Mateusz Rebecki carries real power — 0.71 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.25 Lightweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Mateusz Rebecki

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 64
Tier 3 — regional circuit 151

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.2 · 6 tier-1/2 wins · 17 finish wins over 26 documented bouts

In the UFC: 3-4 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.2 wins over .500

Myktybek Orolbai

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 51
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 30
Tier 3 — regional circuit 71

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.54 · 8 tier-1/2 wins · 12 finish wins over 18 documented bouts

In the UFC: 4-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.3 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

5705.43/min · norm 3.44
Sig. strikes landed
1972.70/min · norm 3.17
4504.29/min · norm 3.38
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
1822.49/min · norm 3.08
49.4%norm 43.65%
Striking accuracy
52.3%norm 44.75%
55.0%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
52.6%norm 55.25%
50.71/15 · norm 0.25
Knockdowns
20.41/15 · norm 0.38

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Mateusz Rebecki

Distance 82.1% (norm 83.1%) · Clinch 3.0% (norm 7.3%) · Ground 14.8% (norm 8.0%)

Myktybek Orolbai

Distance 73.5% (norm 80.7%) · Clinch 1.9% (norm 9.6%) · Ground 24.7% (norm 8.1%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Mateusz Rebecki

Head 82.3% (norm 78.0%) · Body 10.5% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 7.2% (norm 8.0%)

Myktybek Orolbai

Head 83.0% (norm 78.3%) · Body 9.5% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 7.4% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Rebecki L/AAccLightweight med Orolbai L/AAccWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 403 / 947 42.6% 38.3% 121 / 277 43.7% 38.5%
In the clinch 27 / 35 77.1% 67.5% 6 / 7 too few to rate 67.8%
On the ground 140 / 171 81.9% 68.8% 70 / 93 75.3% 67.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 411 / 949 43.3% 35.1% 150 / 313 47.9% 36.4%
To the body 83 / 121 68.6% 69.1% 26 / 36 72.2% 70.7%
To the legs 76 / 83 91.6% 81.8% 21 / 28 75.0% 83.0%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 204 fighters · Welterweight: 180 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Rebecki L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Orolbai L/AOpp accWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 385 / 913 42.2% 38.8% 138 / 330 41.8% 39.1%
In the clinch 18 / 28 64.3% 68.6% 19 / 25 76.0% 68.9%
On the ground 47 / 58 81.0% 68.0% 25 / 29 86.2% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 338 / 820 41.2% 35.2% 115 / 301 38.2% 35.6%
To the body 88 / 149 59.1% 68.2% 36 / 48 75.0% 69.6%
To the legs 24 / 30 80.0% 81.5% 31 / 35 88.6% 82.2%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
2050.0% acc · 2.86/15 · norm 1.34
Takedowns landed
4059.7% acc · 8.22/15 · norm 1.31
853.3% def · norm 63.7%
Takedowns stopped
436.4% def · norm 63.9%
30:2028.9% of cage time · norm 18.95%
Control time
39:1953.9% of cage time · norm 18.5%
12:421:48 per 15 · norm 2:50
Time under control lower is better
6:021:14 per 15 · norm 3:15
20.29/15 · norm 0.48
Submission attempts
20.41/15 · norm 0.44

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Rebecki has more cage time on record.