BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

MarQuel Mederos vs.
Chris Padilla

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

3-0-1 MarQuel Mederos · UFC
4-0-1 Chris Padilla · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

3-0-1
UFC record
4-0-1
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
29.7
AgeΔ 1.2 yrs
30.9
5'10"
HeightΔ 1"
5'9"
69"
ReachΔ 5"
74"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
3.8
Layoff (months)Δ 0 mo
3.8
DWWW
Last 5 (newest first)
DWWWW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

MarQuel Mederos rarely shoots — 0.25 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.38 Lightweight norm.
Chris Padilla outworks the Lightweight division — 6.19 sig. strikes landed per minute, vs a 3.42 norm.
MarQuel Mederos outworks the Lightweight division — 5.43 sig. strikes landed per minute, vs a 3.42 norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

MarQuel Mederos

Full career not yet synced for MarQuel Mederos — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-0 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.2 wins over .500

Chris Padilla

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 32
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 31
Tier 3 — regional circuit 103

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.01 · 6 tier-1/2 wins · 14 finish wins over 22 documented bouts

In the UFC: 0-0 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.2 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

3265.43/min · norm 3.42
Sig. strikes landed
3306.19/min · norm 3.42
2864.77/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed
2604.88/min · norm 3.37
58.3%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
54.2%norm 43.5%
52.3%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
49.4%norm 56.3%
10.25/15 · norm 0.25
Knockdowns
00.00/15 · norm 0.25

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

MarQuel Mederos

Distance 88.9% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 7.9% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 3.2% (norm 8.0%)

Chris Padilla

Distance 88.7% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 7.7% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 3.6% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

MarQuel Mederos

Head 71.4% (norm 78.2%) · Body 11.4% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 17.2% (norm 7.9%)

Chris Padilla

Head 58.0% (norm 78.2%) · Body 13.0% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 29.1% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Mederos L/AAccLightweight med Padilla L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 272 / 497 54.7% 37.9% 273 / 540 50.6% 37.9%
In the clinch 40 / 44 90.9% 67.3% 40 / 47 85.1% 67.3%
On the ground 14 / 18 too few to rate 69.1% 17 / 22 too few to rate 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 193 / 399 48.4% 35.0% 166 / 353 47.0% 35.0%
To the body 53 / 64 82.8% 69.1% 55 / 79 69.6% 69.1%
To the legs 80 / 96 83.3% 81.9% 109 / 177 61.6% 81.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Mederos L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Padilla L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 254 / 553 45.9% 38.9% 232 / 480 48.3% 38.9%
In the clinch 28 / 41 68.3% 68.6% 28 / 34 82.4% 68.6%
On the ground 4 / 5 too few to rate 68.0% 0 / 0 too few to rate 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 176 / 432 40.7% 35.1% 160 / 393 40.7% 35.1%
To the body 54 / 84 64.3% 68.1% 48 / 62 77.4% 68.1%
To the legs 56 / 83 67.5% 81.5% 52 / 59 88.1% 81.5%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

18.3% acc · 0.25/15 · norm 1.38
Takedowns landed
428.6% acc · 1.13/15 · norm 1.38
2177.8% def · norm 64.0%
Takedowns stopped
880.0% def · norm 64.0%
6:4011.1% of cage time · norm 19.5%
Control time
10:3119.7% of cage time · norm 19.5%
16:264:06 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control
0:440:12 per 15 · norm 2:46
00.00/15 · norm 0.49
Submission attempts
10.28/15 · norm 0.49

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Padilla has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.