Kyle Nelson vs.
Matt Sayles
Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.
The men, measured.
Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.
What the numbers say.
Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.
Who did they actually beat?
Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.
Kyle Nelson
| Competition tier | W | L |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin | 5 | 6 |
| Tier 3 — regional circuit | 12 | 1 |
Tier-weighted record quality: 0.79 · 5 tier-1/2 wins · 10 finish wins over 25 documented bouts
In the UFC: 4-4 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.9 wins over .500
Matt Sayles
Full career not yet synced for Matt Sayles — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).
In the UFC: 0-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.0 wins over .500
The stand-up battle.
Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.
Significant strikes — landed & absorbed
Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)
Kyle Nelson
Distance 88.2% (norm 85.7%) · Clinch 9.5% (norm 6.1%) · Ground 2.2% (norm 6.5%)
Matt Sayles
Distance 86.0% (norm 85.7%) · Clinch 4.8% (norm 6.1%) · Ground 9.3% (norm 6.5%)
What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)
Kyle Nelson
Head 73.9% (norm 77.4%) · Body 16.6% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 9.4% (norm 7.8%)
Matt Sayles
Head 75.0% (norm 77.4%) · Body 14.5% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 10.5% (norm 7.8%)
Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone
Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.
| Zone | Nelson L/A | Acc | Featherweight med | Sayles L/A | Acc | Featherweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 346 / 796 | 43.5% | 40.9% | 128 / 361 | 35.5% | 40.9% |
| In the clinch | 54 / 86 | 62.8% | 70.8% | 13 / 20 | too few to rate | 70.8% |
| On the ground | 13 / 20 | too few to rate | 69.2% | 26 / 39 | 66.7% | 69.2% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 231 / 667 | 34.6% | 37.2% | 88 / 315 | 27.9% | 37.2% |
| To the body | 108 / 150 | 72.0% | 68.2% | 46 / 61 | 75.4% | 68.2% |
| To the legs | 74 / 85 | 87.1% | 80.7% | 33 / 44 | 75.0% | 80.7% |
Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 126 fighters · Featherweight: 126 fighters).
What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man
Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.
| Zone | vs Nelson L/A | Opp acc | Featherweight med | vs Sayles L/A | Opp acc | Featherweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 382 / 916 | 41.7% | 39.2% | 96 / 266 | 36.1% | 39.2% |
| In the clinch | 43 / 58 | 74.1% | 70.3% | 12 / 19 | too few to rate | 70.3% |
| On the ground | 100 / 163 | 61.3% | 69.4% | 6 / 7 | too few to rate | 69.4% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 300 / 862 | 34.8% | 35.9% | 58 / 213 | 27.2% | 35.9% |
| To the body | 125 / 157 | 79.6% | 67.9% | 50 / 71 | 70.4% | 67.9% |
| To the legs | 100 / 118 | 84.7% | 81.5% | 6 / 8 | too few to rate | 81.5% |
The ground war.
Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.
Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Nelson has more cage time on record.