BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Kelvin Gastelum vs.
Dustin Stoltzfus

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

14-11-0 (1 NC) Kelvin Gastelum · UFC
3-7-0 Dustin Stoltzfus · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

14-11-0 (1 NC)
UFC record
3-7-0
Middleweight
Division (benchmark)
Middleweight
34.8
AgeΔ 0.1 yrs
34.7
5'9"
HeightΔ 3"
6'0"
71"
ReachΔ 4"
75"
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
3.8
Layoff (months)Δ 6.9 mo
10.7
LWLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
LLWLW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Dustin Stoltzfus is a submission threat — 1.01 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.47 Middleweight norm.
Dustin Stoltzfus hunts takedowns — 2.03 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.42 Middleweight norm.
Kelvin Gastelum carries real power — 0.43 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.32 Middleweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Kelvin Gastelum

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 1411
Tier 3 — regional circuit 60

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.01 · 14 tier-1/2 wins · 11 finish wins over 32 documented bouts

In the UFC: 12-11 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +4.0 wins over .500

Dustin Stoltzfus

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 47
Tier 3 — regional circuit 121

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.72 · 4 tier-1/2 wins · 9 finish wins over 24 documented bouts

In the UFC: 0-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.5 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

12693.65/min · norm 3.25
Sig. strikes landed
3403.28/min · norm 3.25
12223.52/min · norm 3.20
Sig. strikes absorbed
3373.25/min · norm 3.20
42.4%norm 47.4%
Striking accuracy
44.3%norm 47.4%
57.3%norm 53.8%
Striking defense
47.7%norm 53.8%
100.43/15 · norm 0.32
Knockdowns
20.29/15 · norm 0.32

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Kelvin Gastelum

Distance 90.0% (norm 79.4%) · Clinch 5.7% (norm 9.1%) · Ground 4.3% (norm 10.3%)

Dustin Stoltzfus

Distance 87.5% (norm 79.4%) · Clinch 6.5% (norm 9.1%) · Ground 6.0% (norm 10.3%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Kelvin Gastelum

Head 80.8% (norm 78.0%) · Body 10.9% (norm 13.4%) · Legs 8.3% (norm 8.4%)

Dustin Stoltzfus

Head 73.4% (norm 78.0%) · Body 14.7% (norm 13.4%) · Legs 11.9% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Gastelum L/AAccMiddleweight med Stoltzfus L/AAccMiddleweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1082 / 2695 40.1% 40.5% 273 / 671 40.7% 40.5%
In the clinch 109 / 171 63.7% 70.3% 37 / 50 74.0% 70.3%
On the ground 78 / 129 60.5% 69.1% 30 / 46 65.2% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 824 / 2419 34.1% 38.9% 175 / 563 31.1% 38.9%
To the body 233 / 326 71.5% 71.7% 85 / 113 75.2% 71.7%
To the legs 212 / 250 84.8% 83.3% 80 / 91 87.9% 83.3%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Middleweight: 174 fighters · Middleweight: 174 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Gastelum L/AOpp accMiddleweight med vs Stoltzfus L/AOpp accMiddleweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1052 / 2613 40.3% 39.5% 282 / 569 49.6% 39.5%
In the clinch 102 / 153 66.7% 70.9% 31 / 38 81.6% 70.9%
On the ground 68 / 97 70.1% 69.0% 24 / 37 64.9% 69.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 768 / 2234 34.4% 37.9% 241 / 523 46.1% 37.9%
To the body 274 / 406 67.5% 71.3% 60 / 78 76.9% 71.3%
To the legs 180 / 223 80.7% 82.1% 36 / 43 83.7% 82.1%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

2435.3% acc · 1.04/15 · norm 1.42
Takedowns landed
1435.9% acc · 2.03/15 · norm 1.42
5560.4% def · norm 63.1%
Takedowns stopped
750.0% def · norm 63.1%
47:1513.6% of cage time · norm 19.75%
Control time
28:4227.7% of cage time · norm 19.75%
51:252:13 per 15 · norm 3:00
Time under control
18:012:36 per 15 · norm 3:00
20.09/15 · norm 0.47
Submission attempts
71.01/15 · norm 0.47

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Gastelum has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.