BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Islam Makhachev vs.
Ian Machado Garry

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

17-1-0 Islam Makhachev · UFC
10-1-0 Ian Machado Garry · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

17-1-0
UFC record
10-1-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Welterweight
34.8
AgeΔ 6.1 yrs
28.7
5'10"
HeightΔ 5"
6'3"
70"
ReachΔ 4"
74"
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
8.7
Layoff (months)Δ 0.3 mo
8.4
WWWWW
Last 5 (newest first)
WWLWW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Islam Makhachev owns the mat — in control 51% of cage time, vs a 20% Lightweight norm.
Islam Makhachev hunts takedowns — 3.10 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.38 Lightweight norm.
Ian Machado Garry outworks the Welterweight division — 4.78 sig. strikes landed per minute, vs a 3.17 norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Islam Makhachev

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 171
Tier 3 — regional circuit 110

Tier-weighted record quality: 2.04 · 17 tier-1/2 wins · 18 finish wins over 29 documented bouts

In the UFC: 15-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +5.8 wins over .500

Ian Machado Garry

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 101
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 70

Tier-weighted record quality: 2.11 · 17 tier-1/2 wins · 8 finish wins over 18 documented bouts

In the UFC: 8-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.9 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

4852.45/min · norm 3.42
Sig. strikes landed
7754.78/min · norm 3.17
2871.45/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed
4642.86/min · norm 3.06
58.4%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
54.1%norm 44.9%
62.0%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
52.9%norm 55.25%
40.30/15 · norm 0.25
Knockdowns
40.37/15 · norm 0.38

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Islam Makhachev

Distance 68.3% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 12.7% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 19.0% (norm 8.0%)

Ian Machado Garry

Distance 92.7% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 3.9% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 3.3% (norm 8.1%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Islam Makhachev

Head 81.0% (norm 78.2%) · Body 15.4% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 3.6% (norm 7.9%)

Ian Machado Garry

Head 71.2% (norm 78.2%) · Body 14.0% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 14.8% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Makhachev L/AAccLightweight med Garry L/AAccWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 278 / 567 49.0% 37.9% 704 / 1329 53.0% 38.6%
In the clinch 89 / 105 84.8% 67.3% 38 / 56 67.9% 67.8%
On the ground 118 / 158 74.7% 69.1% 33 / 48 68.8% 67.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 344 / 672 51.2% 35.0% 437 / 1020 42.8% 37.2%
To the body 114 / 128 89.1% 69.1% 148 / 201 73.6% 70.7%
To the legs 27 / 30 90.0% 81.9% 190 / 212 89.6% 82.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Welterweight: 182 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Makhachev L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Garry L/AOpp accWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 206 / 650 31.7% 38.9% 403 / 896 45.0% 39.0%
In the clinch 62 / 76 81.6% 68.6% 34 / 52 65.4% 68.9%
On the ground 19 / 29 65.5% 68.0% 27 / 37 73.0% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 143 / 526 27.2% 35.1% 246 / 700 35.1% 35.6%
To the body 94 / 161 58.4% 68.1% 96 / 134 71.6% 69.6%
To the legs 50 / 68 73.5% 81.5% 122 / 151 80.8% 82.1%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

4156.2% acc · 3.10/15 · norm 1.38
Takedowns landed
1031.3% acc · 0.92/15 · norm 1.27
2191.3% def · norm 64.0%
Takedowns stopped
2480.0% def · norm 63.9%
101:2851.2% of cage time · norm 19.5%
Control time
18:5011.6% of cage time · norm 18.5%
15:181:09 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control
30:292:49 per 15 · norm 3:15
130.98/15 · norm 0.49
Submission attempts
40.37/15 · norm 0.45

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Makhachev has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.