Geoff Neal vs.
Belal Muhammad
Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.
The men, measured.
Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.
What the numbers say.
Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.
Who did they actually beat?
Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.
Geoff Neal
| Competition tier | W | L |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin | 9 | 6 |
| Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) | 3 | 0 |
| Tier 3 — regional circuit | 4 | 2 |
Tier-weighted record quality: 1.07 · 12 tier-1/2 wins · 12 finish wins over 24 documented bouts
In the UFC: 6-6 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +4.3 wins over .500
Belal Muhammad
| Competition tier | W | L |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin | 17 | 6 |
| Tier 3 — regional circuit | 7 | 0 |
Tier-weighted record quality: 1.39 · 17 tier-1/2 wins · 6 finish wins over 31 documented bouts
In the UFC: 11-6 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +4.5 wins over .500
The stand-up battle.
Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.
Significant strikes — landed & absorbed
Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)
Geoff Neal
Distance 86.9% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 8.0% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 5.1% (norm 8.1%)
Belal Muhammad
Distance 91.5% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 3.5% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 5.0% (norm 8.1%)
What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)
Geoff Neal
Head 90.5% (norm 78.2%) · Body 6.1% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 3.5% (norm 8.4%)
Belal Muhammad
Head 86.6% (norm 78.2%) · Body 9.1% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 4.3% (norm 8.4%)
Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone
Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.
| Zone | Neal L/A | Acc | Welterweight med | Muhammad L/A | Acc | Welterweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 566 / 1177 | 48.1% | 38.6% | 1324 / 3270 | 40.5% | 38.6% |
| In the clinch | 72 / 108 | 66.7% | 67.8% | 72 / 124 | 58.1% | 67.8% |
| On the ground | 49 / 69 | 71.0% | 67.2% | 119 / 178 | 66.9% | 67.2% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 585 / 1225 | 47.8% | 37.2% | 1166 / 3095 | 37.7% | 37.2% |
| To the body | 58 / 82 | 70.7% | 70.7% | 219 / 324 | 67.6% | 70.7% |
| To the legs | 44 / 47 | 93.6% | 82.9% | 130 / 153 | 85.0% | 82.9% |
Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Welterweight: 182 fighters · Welterweight: 182 fighters).
What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man
Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.
| Zone | vs Neal L/A | Opp acc | Welterweight med | vs Muhammad L/A | Opp acc | Welterweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 684 / 1658 | 41.3% | 39.0% | 1257 / 2896 | 43.4% | 39.0% |
| In the clinch | 73 / 104 | 70.2% | 68.9% | 68 / 86 | 79.1% | 68.9% |
| On the ground | 7 / 13 | too few to rate | 68.0% | 37 / 57 | 64.9% | 68.0% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 477 / 1409 | 33.9% | 35.6% | 780 / 2308 | 33.8% | 35.6% |
| To the body | 208 / 280 | 74.3% | 69.6% | 245 / 350 | 70.0% | 69.6% |
| To the legs | 79 / 86 | 91.9% | 82.1% | 337 / 381 | 88.5% | 82.1% |
The ground war.
Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.
Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Muhammad has more cage time on record.