Francis Marshall vs.
Lucas Brennan
Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.
The men, measured.
Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.
What the numbers say.
Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.
Who did they actually beat?
Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.
Francis Marshall
Full career not yet synced for Francis Marshall — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).
In the UFC: 0-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record -0.4 wins over .500
Lucas Brennan
| Competition tier | W | L |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin | 9 | 2 |
| Tier 3 — regional circuit | 2 | 1 |
Tier-weighted record quality: 1.86 · 9 tier-1/2 wins · 10 finish wins over 14 documented bouts
In the UFC: 0-0 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.0 wins over .500
The stand-up battle.
Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.
Significant strikes — landed & absorbed
Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)
Francis Marshall
Distance 95.9% (norm 85.7%) · Clinch 1.7% (norm 6.1%) · Ground 2.4% (norm 6.5%)
Lucas Brennan
Distance 97.2% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 2.8% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 0.0% (norm 8.0%)
What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)
Francis Marshall
Head 93.2% (norm 77.4%) · Body 3.6% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 3.2% (norm 7.8%)
Lucas Brennan
Head 63.9% (norm 78.2%) · Body 27.8% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 8.3% (norm 7.9%)
Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone
Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.
| Zone | Marshall L/A | Acc | Featherweight med | Brennan L/A | Acc | Lightweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 153 / 563 | 27.2% | 40.9% | 9 / 35 | 25.7% | 37.9% |
| In the clinch | 9 / 10 | too few to rate | 70.8% | 0 / 1 | too few to rate | 67.3% |
| On the ground | 10 / 14 | too few to rate | 69.2% | 0 / 0 | too few to rate | 69.1% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 141 / 547 | 25.8% | 37.2% | 4 / 23 | too few to rate | 35.0% |
| To the body | 12 / 21 | too few to rate | 68.2% | 2 / 10 | too few to rate | 69.1% |
| To the legs | 19 / 19 | too few to rate | 80.7% | 3 / 3 | too few to rate | 81.9% |
Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 126 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).
What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man
Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.
| Zone | vs Marshall L/A | Opp acc | Featherweight med | vs Brennan L/A | Opp acc | Lightweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 190 / 436 | 43.6% | 39.2% | 28 / 64 | 43.8% | 38.9% |
| In the clinch | 4 / 7 | too few to rate | 70.3% | 4 / 4 | too few to rate | 68.6% |
| On the ground | 37 / 55 | 67.3% | 69.4% | 1 / 1 | too few to rate | 68.0% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 139 / 351 | 39.6% | 35.9% | 26 / 59 | 44.1% | 35.1% |
| To the body | 43 / 90 | 47.8% | 67.9% | 3 / 6 | too few to rate | 68.1% |
| To the legs | 49 / 57 | 86.0% | 81.5% | 4 / 4 | too few to rate | 81.5% |
The ground war.
Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.
Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Marshall has more cage time on record.