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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Francis Marshall vs. Dakota Hope

UFC 4-4-0 vs. 1-1-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
4-4-0
UFC record
1-1-0
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Featherweight
27
AgeΔ 2 yrs
29
5'9"
Height
—
72"
Reach
—
Orthodox
Stance
—1-1 vs orthodox fighters
0.1
Layoff (months)Δ 0 mo
0.1
LWWLW
Last 5 (newest first)
WL

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Dakota Hope carries real power — 0.50 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.28 Featherweight norm.
Francis Marshall owns the mat — in control 28% of cage time, vs a 16% Featherweight norm.
Francis Marshall hunts takedowns — 1.86 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.17 Featherweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Francis Marshall

Full career not yet synced for Francis Marshall — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record -0.5 wins over .500

Dakota Hope

Full career not yet synced for Dakota Hope — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 1-0 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.0 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

1972.23/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
1505.00/min · norm 3.52
2753.11/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
1304.33/min · norm 3.54
30.4%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
40.7%norm 44.8%
54.8%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
40.9%norm 54.8%
20.34/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
10.50/15 · norm 0.28

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Francis Marshall

Distance 95.5% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 2.2% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 2.3% (norm 6.4%)

Dakota Hope

Distance 78.0% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 19.0% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 3.0% (norm 6.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Francis Marshall

Head 92.0% (norm 77.5%) · Body 3.4% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 4.6% (norm 7.9%)

Dakota Hope

Head 78.3% (norm 77.5%) · Body 17.6% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 4.1% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Marshall L/AAccFeatherweight med Hope L/AAccFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 177 / 619 28.6% 40.7% 91 / 288 31.6% 40.7%
In the clinch 10 / 14 too few to rate 70.5% 52 / 70 74.3% 70.5%
On the ground 10 / 15 too few to rate 69.1% 7 / 11 too few to rate 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 155 / 596 26.0% 37.2% 92 / 289 31.8% 37.2%
To the body 12 / 22 too few to rate 68.4% 50 / 65 76.9% 68.4%
To the legs 30 / 30 100.0% 80.7% 8 / 15 too few to rate 80.7%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Featherweight: 129 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Marshall L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Hope L/AOpp accFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 220 / 527 41.7% 39.3% 107 / 187 57.2% 39.3%
In the clinch 12 / 20 too few to rate 70.3% 23 / 32 71.9% 70.3%
On the ground 43 / 62 69.4% 69.5% 0 / 1 too few to rate 69.5%
BY TARGET
To the head 169 / 439 38.5% 35.9% 58 / 143 40.6% 35.9%
To the body 50 / 101 49.5% 68.1% 47 / 52 90.4% 68.1%
To the legs 56 / 69 81.2% 81.1% 25 / 25 100.0% 81.1%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
1137.9% acc · 1.86/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
116.7% acc · 0.50/15 · norm 1.17
1191.7% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
583.3% def · norm 61.5%
25:0028.2% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
5:5919.9% of cage time · norm 16.5%
10:131:43 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
1:570:58 per 15 · norm 3:11
30.51/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
00.00/15 · norm 0.44

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Marshall has more cage time on record.