BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Bogdan Guskov vs.
Zac Pauga

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

4-2-1 Bogdan Guskov · UFC
1-3-0 Zac Pauga · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

4-2-1
UFC record
1-3-0
Light Heavyweight
Division (benchmark)
Light Heavyweight
33.9
AgeΔ 4.5 yrs
38.4
6'3"
HeightΔ 1"
6'2"
76"
ReachΔ 0"
76"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
0.4
Layoff (months)Δ 29.4 mo
29.8
LDWWW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLWL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Bogdan Guskov is a submission threat — 0.68 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.27 Light Heavyweight norm.
Bogdan Guskov carries real power — 0.91 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.40 Light Heavyweight norm.
Zac Pauga owns the mat — in control 31% of cage time, vs a 16% Light Heavyweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Bogdan Guskov

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 42
Tier 3 — regional circuit 142

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.14 · 4 tier-1/2 wins · 18 finish wins over 23 documented bouts

In the UFC: 2-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.7 wins over .500

Zac Pauga

Full career not yet synced for Zac Pauga — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-0 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record -1.0 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

2383.60/min · norm 3.41
Sig. strikes landed
1754.46/min · norm 3.41
2323.50/min · norm 3.35
Sig. strikes absorbed
1072.73/min · norm 3.35
56.8%norm 48.3%
Striking accuracy
62.9%norm 48.3%
46.5%norm 52.9%
Striking defense
58.7%norm 52.9%
40.91/15 · norm 0.40
Knockdowns
00.00/15 · norm 0.40

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Bogdan Guskov

Distance 72.3% (norm 80.5%) · Clinch 2.9% (norm 8.6%) · Ground 24.8% (norm 10.4%)

Zac Pauga

Distance 78.4% (norm 80.5%) · Clinch 20.9% (norm 8.6%) · Ground 0.7% (norm 10.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Bogdan Guskov

Head 83.5% (norm 79.2%) · Body 3.3% (norm 11.7%) · Legs 13.1% (norm 9.7%)

Zac Pauga

Head 63.3% (norm 79.2%) · Body 24.8% (norm 11.7%) · Legs 11.9% (norm 9.7%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Guskov L/AAccLight Heavyweight med Pauga L/AAccLight Heavyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 156 / 303 51.5% 41.4% 124 / 218 56.9% 41.4%
In the clinch 11 / 12 too few to rate 70.9% 49 / 58 84.5% 70.9%
On the ground 71 / 104 68.3% 72.3% 2 / 2 too few to rate 72.3%
BY TARGET
To the head 177 / 350 50.6% 38.9% 87 / 176 49.4% 38.9%
To the body 12 / 14 too few to rate 71.9% 57 / 69 82.6% 71.9%
To the legs 49 / 55 89.1% 81.8% 31 / 33 93.9% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Light Heavyweight: 93 fighters · Light Heavyweight: 93 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Guskov L/AOpp accLight Heavyweight med vs Pauga L/AOpp accLight Heavyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 187 / 376 49.7% 40.4% 87 / 231 37.7% 40.4%
In the clinch 12 / 14 too few to rate 68.7% 17 / 24 too few to rate 68.7%
On the ground 33 / 44 75.0% 70.4% 3 / 4 too few to rate 70.4%
BY TARGET
To the head 135 / 300 45.0% 37.5% 78 / 219 35.6% 37.5%
To the body 48 / 77 62.3% 72.3% 24 / 34 70.6% 72.3%
To the legs 49 / 57 86.0% 83.0% 5 / 6 too few to rate 83.0%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

0— acc · 0.00/15 · norm 0.87
Takedowns landed
17.7% acc · 0.38/15 · norm 0.87
654.5% def · norm 66.7%
Takedowns stopped
2100.0% def · norm 66.7%
6:149.4% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
12:0130.6% of cage time · norm 16.5%
18:104:06 per 15 · norm 2:48
Time under control
1:390:37 per 15 · norm 2:48
30.68/15 · norm 0.27
Submission attempts
00.00/15 · norm 0.27

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Guskov has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.