BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Arman Tsarukyan vs.
Joel Alvarez

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

10-2-0 Arman Tsarukyan · UFC
8-3-0 Joel Alvarez · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

10-2-0
UFC record
8-3-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
29
AgeΔ 4 yrs
33
5'7"
HeightΔ 8"
6'3"
72"
ReachΔ 5"
77"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
8.4
Layoff (months)Δ 5.5 mo
2.9
WWWWW
Last 5 (newest first)
LWWWW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Arman Tsarukyan hunts takedowns — 3.26 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.38 Lightweight norm.
Arman Tsarukyan owns the mat — in control 42% of cage time, vs a 20% Lightweight norm.
Joel Alvarez is a submission threat — 1.06 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.49 Lightweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Arman Tsarukyan

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 102
Tier 3 — regional circuit 131

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.54 · 10 tier-1/2 wins · 15 finish wins over 26 documented bouts

In the UFC: 10-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +4.4 wins over .500

Joel Alvarez

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 83
Tier 3 — regional circuit 151

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.46 · 8 tier-1/2 wins · 22 finish wins over 27 documented bouts

In the UFC: 6-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.2 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

5673.85/min · norm 3.42
Sig. strikes landed
3844.53/min · norm 3.42
2651.80/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed
2573.03/min · norm 3.37
50.0%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
54.5%norm 43.5%
54.9%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
53.9%norm 56.3%
30.31/15 · norm 0.25
Knockdowns
10.18/15 · norm 0.25

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Arman Tsarukyan

Distance 75.5% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 5.1% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 19.4% (norm 8.0%)

Joel Alvarez

Distance 82.0% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 7.7% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 10.4% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Arman Tsarukyan

Head 78.4% (norm 78.2%) · Body 14.7% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 6.9% (norm 7.9%)

Joel Alvarez

Head 79.1% (norm 78.2%) · Body 13.9% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 7.0% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Tsarukyan L/AAccLightweight med Alvarez L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 349 / 855 40.8% 37.9% 286 / 577 49.6% 37.9%
In the clinch 42 / 58 72.4% 67.3% 44 / 54 81.5% 67.3%
On the ground 176 / 220 80.0% 69.1% 54 / 73 74.0% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 376 / 888 42.3% 35.0% 265 / 557 47.6% 35.0%
To the body 124 / 167 74.3% 69.1% 76 / 98 77.6% 69.1%
To the legs 67 / 78 85.9% 81.9% 43 / 49 87.8% 81.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Tsarukyan L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Alvarez L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 192 / 492 39.0% 38.9% 213 / 496 42.9% 38.9%
In the clinch 51 / 64 79.7% 68.6% 5 / 8 too few to rate 68.6%
On the ground 22 / 31 71.0% 68.0% 39 / 53 73.6% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 165 / 442 37.3% 35.1% 129 / 366 35.2% 35.1%
To the body 77 / 114 67.5% 68.1% 62 / 107 57.9% 68.1%
To the legs 23 / 31 74.2% 81.5% 66 / 84 78.6% 81.5%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

3237.6% acc · 3.26/15 · norm 1.38
Takedowns landed
133.3% acc · 0.18/15 · norm 1.38
3075.0% def · norm 64.0%
Takedowns stopped
1346.4% def · norm 64.0%
62:1942.3% of cage time · norm 19.5%
Control time
9:1010.8% of cage time · norm 19.5%
16:031:38 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control
21:073:44 per 15 · norm 2:46
10.10/15 · norm 0.49
Submission attempts
61.06/15 · norm 0.49

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Tsarukyan has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.