BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Alvin Robinson vs.
Nate Diaz

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

1-3-0 Alvin Robinson · UFC
16-11-0 Nate Diaz · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

1-3-0
UFC record
16-11-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
44.1
AgeΔ 2.8 yrs
41.3
5'9"
HeightΔ 3"
6'0"
68"
ReachΔ 8"
76"
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
212.6
Layoff (months)Δ 165.8 mo
46.8
LLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
WLLWL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Alvin Robinson is a submission threat — 1.24 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.49 Lightweight norm.
Nate Diaz is a submission threat — 1.16 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.49 Lightweight norm.
Alvin Robinson is hard to hit — absorbs 1.29 sig. strikes per minute, vs a 3.37 Lightweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Alvin Robinson

Full career not yet synced for Alvin Robinson — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 1-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.0 wins over .500

Nate Diaz

Full career not yet synced for Nate Diaz — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 10-10 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.4 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

571.57/min · norm 3.42
Sig. strikes landed
15444.58/min · norm 3.42
471.29/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed
13484.00/min · norm 3.37
50.4%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
44.6%norm 43.5%
51.0%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
52.9%norm 56.3%
00.00/15 · norm 0.25
Knockdowns
40.18/15 · norm 0.25

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Alvin Robinson

Distance 31.0% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 8.8% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 60.2% (norm 8.0%)

Nate Diaz

Distance 83.2% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 13.8% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 3.0% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Alvin Robinson

Head 95.6% (norm 78.2%) · Body 2.7% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 1.8% (norm 7.9%)

Nate Diaz

Head 83.5% (norm 78.2%) · Body 11.5% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 5.1% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Robinson L/AAccLightweight med Diaz L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 13 / 35 37.1% 37.9% 1132 / 2883 39.3% 37.9%
In the clinch 5 / 10 too few to rate 67.3% 342 / 477 71.7% 67.3%
On the ground 39 / 68 57.4% 69.1% 70 / 104 67.3% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 53 / 108 49.1% 35.0% 1146 / 2891 39.6% 35.0%
To the body 3 / 3 too few to rate 69.1% 263 / 397 66.2% 69.1%
To the legs 1 / 2 too few to rate 81.9% 135 / 176 76.7% 81.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Robinson L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Diaz L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 4 / 18 too few to rate 38.9% 874 / 2115 41.3% 38.9%
In the clinch 3 / 3 too few to rate 68.6% 217 / 324 67.0% 68.6%
On the ground 40 / 75 53.3% 68.0% 257 / 420 61.2% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 37 / 85 43.5% 35.1% 772 / 2096 36.8% 35.1%
To the body 8 / 8 too few to rate 68.1% 246 / 365 67.4% 68.1%
To the legs 2 / 3 too few to rate 81.5% 330 / 398 82.9% 81.5%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

350.0% acc · 1.24/15 · norm 1.38
Takedowns landed
1826.5% acc · 0.80/15 · norm 1.38
225.0% def · norm 64.0%
Takedowns stopped
4343.9% def · norm 64.0%
11:0930.6% of cage time · norm 19.5%
Control time
47:1814.0% of cage time · norm 19.5%
22:439:21 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control
97:414:20 per 15 · norm 2:46
31.24/15 · norm 0.49
Submission attempts
261.16/15 · norm 0.49

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Diaz has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.