AJ Fletcher vs.
Matthew Semelsberger
Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.
The men, measured.
Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.
What the numbers say.
Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.
Who did they actually beat?
Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.
AJ Fletcher
Full career not yet synced for AJ Fletcher — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).
In the UFC: 0-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.0 wins over .500
Matthew Semelsberger
| Competition tier | W | L |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin | 5 | 6 |
| Tier 3 — regional circuit | 6 | 2 |
Tier-weighted record quality: 0.55 · 5 tier-1/2 wins · 7 finish wins over 19 documented bouts
In the UFC: 1-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.6 wins over .500
The stand-up battle.
Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.
Significant strikes — landed & absorbed
Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)
AJ Fletcher
Distance 87.9% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 6.4% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 5.8% (norm 8.1%)
Matthew Semelsberger
Distance 85.8% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 4.9% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 9.3% (norm 8.1%)
What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)
AJ Fletcher
Head 80.2% (norm 78.2%) · Body 8.6% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 11.2% (norm 8.4%)
Matthew Semelsberger
Head 78.7% (norm 78.2%) · Body 12.0% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 9.4% (norm 8.4%)
Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone
Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.
| Zone | Fletcher L/A | Acc | Welterweight med | Semelsberger L/A | Acc | Welterweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 131 / 275 | 47.6% | 38.6% | 359 / 897 | 40.0% | 38.6% |
| In the clinch | 12 / 20 | too few to rate | 67.8% | 36 / 51 | 70.6% | 67.8% |
| On the ground | 10 / 18 | too few to rate | 67.2% | 54 / 97 | 55.7% | 67.2% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 107 / 251 | 42.6% | 37.2% | 290 / 822 | 35.3% | 37.2% |
| To the body | 17 / 27 | 63.0% | 70.7% | 76 / 125 | 60.8% | 70.7% |
| To the legs | 29 / 35 | 82.9% | 82.9% | 83 / 98 | 84.7% | 82.9% |
Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Welterweight: 182 fighters · Welterweight: 182 fighters).
What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man
Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.
| Zone | vs Fletcher L/A | Opp acc | Welterweight med | vs Semelsberger L/A | Opp acc | Welterweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 150 / 310 | 48.4% | 39.0% | 418 / 970 | 43.1% | 39.0% |
| In the clinch | 30 / 41 | 73.2% | 68.9% | 40 / 55 | 72.7% | 68.9% |
| On the ground | 40 / 54 | 74.1% | 68.0% | 46 / 74 | 62.2% | 68.0% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 131 / 286 | 45.8% | 35.6% | 353 / 908 | 38.9% | 35.6% |
| To the body | 70 / 97 | 72.2% | 69.6% | 81 / 115 | 70.4% | 69.6% |
| To the legs | 19 / 22 | too few to rate | 82.1% | 70 / 76 | 92.1% | 82.1% |
The ground war.
Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.
Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Semelsberger has more cage time on record.