Roman Dolidze

Picked against but credited with a real path via top control, a hedged read rather than a dismissal.

A straightforward, powerful striker whose more complete grappling could be the deciding factor if he gets on top and controls position for long stretches.

Explicitly framed as a true toss-up, with the underdog pick offered as a spoiler read that could still change by fight week.

Dolidze isn't the flashiest striker, but a good jab-cross and step-in knee carry real pop for the division, and his takedowns — usually set up off the back of his strikes rather than shot for on their own — open up a genuinely dangerous ground game. Once he's there, his mat control is a genuine weapon too -- strong from the top, capable of sweeping back on top when reversed, and armed with a deep submission arsenal that includes a heel hook few fighters at this level can actually finish.

He's credited with an elite grappling pedigree, but low-output striking and clear telegraphing are cited as real vulnerabilities against a fighter like Hawes.

Dolidze arrives with a heavy grappling résumé and real skill using cage pressure to control range and dictate where the fight happens. His striking, however, comes with low volume and noticeable telegraphing, and he tends to struggle at distance, preferring to close in to set up his grappling. Against an opponent with credible boxing and wrestling of his own, that reliance on close-range grappling entries is viewed as the deciding limitation, though the matchup is still considered close.