Mario Pinto

He lays out a clean if-then case -- Spann needs an early finish or the fight tilts toward Pinto -- and states flatly that he doesn't expect that early finish, landing on Pinto without any real hedging.

Pinto carries a perfect record overall and has won all five of his last five, though the analyst admits his recent performances have looked underwhelming even as the results keep coming. He's rated a good striker who works effectively behind his jab and a notably high guard -- unusual and effective for someone his size -- plus real leg kick volume. He's also a slow starter stylistically: he tends to open with disconnected single strikes before gradually finding his rhythm and linking real combinations together as the fight progresses. His grappling draws strong marks too, with decent takedown defense and a willingness to keep scrambling back to his feet if he's taken down, a trait the analyst notes isn't common at his size, on top of good top control and ground-and-pound once he's on top himself. The overall case for him is one of attrition -- the analyst thinks time favors him, and doesn't expect Spann to close the show early enough to change that.

About as one-sided a pick as offered on this card, with almost no credit given to the opponent's chances.

Pinto is unbeaten and methodical — he likes to establish his jab and leg kicks behind a high guard before layering in combinations as a fight wears on. He's a real threat on the mat too, with solid takedown defense, a knack for scrambling back to his feet, and strong top control and ground-and-pound once he lands there. Given how lopsided the talent gap is viewed here, the expectation is a comfortable, dominant win.