BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Vagner Rocha vs.
Jake Matthews

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

1-3-0 Vagner Rocha · UFC
16-8-0 Jake Matthews · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

1-3-0
UFC record
16-8-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Welterweight
44.2
AgeΔ 12.2 yrs
32
5'10"
HeightΔ 1"
5'11"
73"
ReachΔ 0"
73"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
140.9
Layoff (months)Δ 138.7 mo
2.2
LLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
WLWWW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Vagner Rocha is a submission threat — 1.86 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.49 Lightweight norm.
Jake Matthews is a submission threat — 0.71 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.45 Welterweight norm.
Jake Matthews owns the mat — in control 26% of cage time, vs a 18% Welterweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Vagner Rocha

Full career not yet synced for Vagner Rocha — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.5 wins over .500

Jake Matthews

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 168
Tier 3 — regional circuit 70

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.36 · 16 tier-1/2 wins · 14 finish wins over 31 documented bouts

In the UFC: 8-7 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.8 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

852.64/min · norm 3.42
Sig. strikes landed
9253.36/min · norm 3.17
1454.50/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed
7102.58/min · norm 3.06
42.5%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
44.5%norm 44.9%
48.0%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
60.6%norm 55.25%
00.00/15 · norm 0.25
Knockdowns
60.33/15 · norm 0.38

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Vagner Rocha

Distance 91.5% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 0.5% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 8.0% (norm 8.0%)

Jake Matthews

Distance 82.1% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 4.8% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 13.1% (norm 8.1%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Vagner Rocha

Head 77.0% (norm 78.2%) · Body 9.0% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 14.0% (norm 7.9%)

Jake Matthews

Head 82.6% (norm 78.2%) · Body 11.5% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 5.9% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Rocha L/AAccLightweight med Matthews L/AAccWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 74 / 183 40.4% 37.9% 664 / 1706 38.9% 38.6%
In the clinch 1 / 1 too few to rate 67.3% 67 / 100 67.0% 67.8%
On the ground 10 / 16 too few to rate 69.1% 194 / 273 71.1% 67.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 56 / 154 36.4% 35.0% 665 / 1718 38.7% 37.2%
To the body 9 / 18 too few to rate 69.1% 161 / 239 67.4% 70.7%
To the legs 20 / 28 71.4% 81.9% 99 / 122 81.1% 82.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Welterweight: 182 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Rocha L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Matthews L/AOpp accWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 127 / 257 49.4% 38.9% 517 / 1515 34.1% 39.0%
In the clinch 5 / 7 too few to rate 68.6% 98 / 140 70.0% 68.9%
On the ground 13 / 15 too few to rate 68.0% 95 / 147 64.6% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 65 / 181 35.9% 35.1% 434 / 1402 31.0% 35.6%
To the body 19 / 28 67.9% 68.1% 124 / 199 62.3% 69.6%
To the legs 61 / 70 87.1% 81.5% 152 / 201 75.6% 82.1%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

333.3% acc · 1.40/15 · norm 1.38
Takedowns landed
2541.7% acc · 1.36/15 · norm 1.27
250.0% def · norm 64.0%
Takedowns stopped
2866.7% def · norm 63.9%
7:0221.8% of cage time · norm 19.5%
Control time
72:5326.4% of cage time · norm 18.5%
2:151:02 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control
40:352:12 per 15 · norm 3:15
41.86/15 · norm 0.49
Submission attempts
130.71/15 · norm 0.45

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Matthews has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.