BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Trey Ogden vs.
Kurt Holobaugh

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

3-3-0 (1 NC) Trey Ogden · UFC
2-7-0 Kurt Holobaugh · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

3-3-0 (1 NC)
UFC record
2-7-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
36
AgeΔ 3 yrs
39
5'11"
HeightΔ 0"
5'11"
72"
ReachΔ 2"
70"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
18.8
Layoff (months)Δ 4.6 mo
14.2
LWWNCL
Last 5 (newest first)
LLWLW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Kurt Holobaugh is a submission threat — 0.77 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.49 Lightweight norm.
Trey Ogden is a submission threat — 0.73 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.49 Lightweight norm.
Kurt Holobaugh rarely shoots — 0.77 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.38 Lightweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Trey Ogden

Full career not yet synced for Trey Ogden — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 1-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.0 wins over .500

Kurt Holobaugh

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 27
Tier 3 — regional circuit 203

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.68 · 2 tier-1/2 wins · 18 finish wins over 33 documented bouts

In the UFC: 0-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.1 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

3303.20/min · norm 3.42
Sig. strikes landed
4564.65/min · norm 3.42
3603.49/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed
4434.52/min · norm 3.37
50.2%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
45.0%norm 43.5%
55.6%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
48.5%norm 56.3%
00.00/15 · norm 0.25
Knockdowns
10.15/15 · norm 0.25

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Trey Ogden

Distance 95.1% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 3.3% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 1.5% (norm 8.0%)

Kurt Holobaugh

Distance 86.8% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 10.3% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 3.0% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Trey Ogden

Head 69.0% (norm 78.2%) · Body 12.3% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 18.7% (norm 7.9%)

Kurt Holobaugh

Head 77.3% (norm 78.2%) · Body 15.1% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 7.6% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Ogden L/AAccLightweight med Holobaugh L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 302 / 626 48.2% 37.9% 357 / 880 40.6% 37.9%
In the clinch 18 / 22 too few to rate 67.3% 75 / 104 72.1% 67.3%
On the ground 10 / 10 too few to rate 69.1% 24 / 30 80.0% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 165 / 454 36.3% 35.0% 283 / 784 36.1% 35.0%
To the body 62 / 81 76.5% 69.1% 113 / 153 73.9% 69.1%
To the legs 103 / 123 83.7% 81.9% 60 / 77 77.9% 81.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Ogden L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Holobaugh L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 303 / 730 41.5% 38.9% 292 / 648 45.1% 38.9%
In the clinch 4 / 6 too few to rate 68.6% 72 / 102 70.6% 68.6%
On the ground 53 / 75 70.7% 68.0% 79 / 110 71.8% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 144 / 493 29.2% 35.1% 329 / 717 45.9% 35.1%
To the body 80 / 158 50.6% 68.1% 80 / 103 77.7% 68.1%
To the legs 136 / 160 85.0% 81.5% 34 / 40 85.0% 81.5%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

1332.5% acc · 1.89/15 · norm 1.38
Takedowns landed
533.3% acc · 0.77/15 · norm 1.38
3100.0% def · norm 64.0%
Takedowns stopped
1336.1% def · norm 64.0%
28:1527.4% of cage time · norm 19.5%
Control time
16:1616.6% of cage time · norm 19.5%
14:332:06 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control
41:386:22 per 15 · norm 2:46
50.73/15 · norm 0.49
Submission attempts
50.77/15 · norm 0.49

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Holobaugh has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.