BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Tom Nolan vs.
Nikolas Motta

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

5-1-0 Tom Nolan · UFC
3-3-0 (1 NC) Nikolas Motta · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

5-1-0
UFC record
3-3-0 (1 NC)
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
26
AgeΔ 7 yrs
33
6'3"
HeightΔ 6"
5'9"
73"
ReachΔ 3"
70"
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
2
Layoff (months)Δ 11.5 mo
13.5
WWWWW
Last 5 (newest first)
LWWNCL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Nikolas Motta carries real power — 1.47 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.25 Lightweight norm.
Tom Nolan is a submission threat — 1.39 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.49 Lightweight norm.
Nikolas Motta rarely shoots — 0.00 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.38 Lightweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Tom Nolan

Full career not yet synced for Tom Nolan — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 2-0 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.7 wins over .500

Nikolas Motta

Full career not yet synced for Nikolas Motta — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.3 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

2554.72/min · norm 3.42
Sig. strikes landed
2314.52/min · norm 3.42
2053.80/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed
2955.77/min · norm 3.37
45.4%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
41.3%norm 43.5%
48.5%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
48.3%norm 56.3%
00.00/15 · norm 0.25
Knockdowns
51.47/15 · norm 0.25

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Tom Nolan

Distance 83.1% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 11.7% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 5.2% (norm 8.0%)

Nikolas Motta

Distance 87.1% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 5.4% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 7.5% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Tom Nolan

Head 65.1% (norm 78.2%) · Body 23.7% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 11.2% (norm 7.9%)

Nikolas Motta

Head 88.0% (norm 78.2%) · Body 7.9% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 4.1% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Nolan L/AAccLightweight med Motta L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 197 / 467 42.2% 37.9% 186 / 487 38.2% 37.9%
In the clinch 42 / 66 63.6% 67.3% 14 / 30 46.7% 67.3%
On the ground 16 / 29 55.2% 69.1% 31 / 42 73.8% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 128 / 366 35.0% 35.0% 176 / 492 35.8% 35.0%
To the body 81 / 133 60.9% 69.1% 34 / 44 77.3% 69.1%
To the legs 46 / 63 73.0% 81.9% 21 / 23 too few to rate 81.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Nolan L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Motta L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 163 / 327 49.8% 38.9% 227 / 476 47.7% 38.9%
In the clinch 21 / 36 58.3% 68.6% 53 / 69 76.8% 68.6%
On the ground 21 / 35 60.0% 68.0% 15 / 26 57.7% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 93 / 257 36.2% 35.1% 177 / 434 40.8% 35.1%
To the body 60 / 87 69.0% 68.1% 61 / 74 82.4% 68.1%
To the legs 52 / 54 96.3% 81.5% 57 / 63 90.5% 81.5%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

426.7% acc · 1.11/15 · norm 1.38
Takedowns landed
0— acc · 0.00/15 · norm 1.38
758.3% def · norm 64.0%
Takedowns stopped
1482.4% def · norm 64.0%
9:4618.1% of cage time · norm 19.5%
Control time
2:024.0% of cage time · norm 19.5%
13:493:50 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control
6:321:54 per 15 · norm 2:46
51.39/15 · norm 0.49
Submission attempts
00.00/15 · norm 0.49

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Motta has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.