BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

TJ Waldburger vs.
Mike Stumpf

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

4-4-0 TJ Waldburger · UFC
0-2-0 Mike Stumpf · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

4-4-0
UFC record
0-2-0
Welterweight
Division (benchmark)
Welterweight
38
AgeΔ 2 yrs
40
5'11"
HeightΔ 1"
5'10"
75"
Reach
Orthodox
Stance
149.4
Layoff (months)Δ 12.9 mo
162.3
LLWLW
Last 5 (newest first)
LL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

TJ Waldburger is a submission threat — 4.79 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.45 Welterweight norm.
Mike Stumpf absorbs 8.85 sig. strikes per minute, well above the 3.06 Welterweight norm — hittable.
TJ Waldburger hunts takedowns — 3.03 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.27 Welterweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

TJ Waldburger

Full career not yet synced for TJ Waldburger — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 1-4 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.5 wins over .500

Mike Stumpf

Full career not yet synced for Mike Stumpf — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-0 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.0 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

1202.02/min · norm 3.17
Sig. strikes landed
633.34/min · norm 3.17
1422.39/min · norm 3.06
Sig. strikes absorbed
1678.85/min · norm 3.06
51.3%norm 44.9%
Striking accuracy
43.2%norm 44.9%
40.1%norm 55.25%
Striking defense
47.2%norm 55.25%
20.50/15 · norm 0.38
Knockdowns
00.00/15 · norm 0.38

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

TJ Waldburger

Distance 61.5% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 12.0% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 26.5% (norm 8.1%)

Mike Stumpf

Distance 85.6% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 13.0% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 1.4% (norm 8.1%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

TJ Waldburger

Head 78.2% (norm 78.2%) · Body 9.8% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 12.0% (norm 8.4%)

Mike Stumpf

Head 67.1% (norm 78.2%) · Body 18.5% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 14.4% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Waldburger L/AAccWelterweight med Stumpf L/AAccWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 59 / 144 41.0% 38.6% 51 / 125 40.8% 38.6%
In the clinch 20 / 28 71.4% 67.8% 12 / 19 too few to rate 67.8%
On the ground 41 / 62 66.1% 67.2% 0 / 2 too few to rate 67.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 76 / 183 41.5% 37.2% 26 / 98 26.5% 37.2%
To the body 20 / 23 too few to rate 70.7% 16 / 27 59.3% 70.7%
To the legs 24 / 28 85.7% 82.9% 21 / 21 too few to rate 82.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Welterweight: 182 fighters · Welterweight: 182 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Waldburger L/AOpp accWelterweight med vs Stumpf L/AOpp accWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 46 / 115 40.0% 39.0% 117 / 246 47.6% 39.0%
In the clinch 35 / 50 70.0% 68.9% 45 / 65 69.2% 68.9%
On the ground 61 / 72 84.7% 68.0% 5 / 5 too few to rate 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 102 / 180 56.7% 35.6% 117 / 258 45.3% 35.6%
To the body 24 / 35 68.6% 69.6% 20 / 27 74.1% 69.6%
To the legs 16 / 22 too few to rate 82.1% 30 / 31 96.8% 82.1%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

1246.2% acc · 3.03/15 · norm 1.27
Takedowns landed
225.0% acc · 1.59/15 · norm 1.27
640.0% def · norm 63.9%
Takedowns stopped
233.3% def · norm 63.9%
20:5335.1% of cage time · norm 18.5%
Control time
2:5315.3% of cage time · norm 18.5%
17:284:24 per 15 · norm 3:15
Time under control
6:595:33 per 15 · norm 3:15
194.79/15 · norm 0.45
Submission attempts
10.80/15 · norm 0.45

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Waldburger has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.