Tim Kennedy vs.
Kelvin Gastelum
Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.
The men, measured.
Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.
What the numbers say.
Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.
Who did they actually beat?
Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.
Tim Kennedy
Full career not yet synced for Tim Kennedy — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).
In the UFC: 2-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +4.2 wins over .500
Kelvin Gastelum
| Competition tier | W | L |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin | 14 | 11 |
| Tier 3 — regional circuit | 6 | 0 |
Tier-weighted record quality: 1.01 · 14 tier-1/2 wins · 11 finish wins over 32 documented bouts
In the UFC: 12-11 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +4.0 wins over .500
The stand-up battle.
Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.
Significant strikes — landed & absorbed
Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)
Tim Kennedy
Distance 76.1% (norm 79.4%) · Clinch 14.7% (norm 9.1%) · Ground 9.2% (norm 10.3%)
Kelvin Gastelum
Distance 90.0% (norm 79.4%) · Clinch 5.7% (norm 9.1%) · Ground 4.3% (norm 10.3%)
What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)
Tim Kennedy
Head 63.8% (norm 78.0%) · Body 20.3% (norm 13.4%) · Legs 15.8% (norm 8.4%)
Kelvin Gastelum
Head 80.8% (norm 78.0%) · Body 10.9% (norm 13.4%) · Legs 8.3% (norm 8.4%)
Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone
Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.
| Zone | Kennedy L/A | Acc | Middleweight med | Gastelum L/A | Acc | Middleweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 119 / 322 | 37.0% | 40.5% | 1082 / 2695 | 40.1% | 40.5% |
| In the clinch | 49 / 62 | 79.0% | 70.3% | 109 / 171 | 63.7% | 70.3% |
| On the ground | 25 / 39 | 64.1% | 69.1% | 78 / 129 | 60.5% | 69.1% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 92 / 270 | 34.1% | 38.9% | 824 / 2419 | 34.1% | 38.9% |
| To the body | 48 / 86 | 55.8% | 71.7% | 233 / 326 | 71.5% | 71.7% |
| To the legs | 53 / 67 | 79.1% | 83.3% | 212 / 250 | 84.8% | 83.3% |
Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Middleweight: 174 fighters · Middleweight: 174 fighters).
What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man
Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.
| Zone | vs Kennedy L/A | Opp acc | Middleweight med | vs Gastelum L/A | Opp acc | Middleweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 137 / 351 | 39.0% | 39.5% | 1052 / 2613 | 40.3% | 39.5% |
| In the clinch | 18 / 24 | too few to rate | 70.9% | 102 / 153 | 66.7% | 70.9% |
| On the ground | 11 / 16 | too few to rate | 69.0% | 68 / 97 | 70.1% | 69.0% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 125 / 324 | 38.6% | 37.9% | 768 / 2234 | 34.4% | 37.9% |
| To the body | 24 / 42 | 57.1% | 71.3% | 274 / 406 | 67.5% | 71.3% |
| To the legs | 17 / 25 | 68.0% | 82.1% | 180 / 223 | 80.7% | 82.1% |
The ground war.
Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.
Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Gastelum has more cage time on record.