BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Thiago Tavares vs.
Shane Roller

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

10-7-1 Thiago Tavares · UFC
2-4-0 Shane Roller · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

10-7-1
UFC record
2-4-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
41.7
AgeΔ 5.4 yrs
47.1
5'7"
HeightΔ 3"
5'10"
70"
ReachΔ 2"
72"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
120.9
Layoff (months)Δ 45.1 mo
166
LWLWW
Last 5 (newest first)
LWLLL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Thiago Tavares is a submission threat — 1.46 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.49 Lightweight norm.
Thiago Tavares hunts takedowns — 3.83 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.38 Lightweight norm.
Shane Roller is wasteful with body shots — only 39% land, vs a 69% Lightweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Thiago Tavares

Full career not yet synced for Thiago Tavares — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 5-4 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.0 wins over .500

Shane Roller

Full career not yet synced for Shane Roller — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 1-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.7 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

3292.00/min · norm 3.42
Sig. strikes landed
1242.32/min · norm 3.42
3792.31/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed
1703.18/min · norm 3.37
40.1%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
35.7%norm 43.5%
62.8%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
61.4%norm 56.3%
00.00/15 · norm 0.25
Knockdowns
10.28/15 · norm 0.25

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Thiago Tavares

Distance 75.4% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 6.5% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 18.2% (norm 8.0%)

Shane Roller

Distance 84.7% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 3.7% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 11.5% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Thiago Tavares

Head 82.9% (norm 78.2%) · Body 12.9% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 4.1% (norm 7.9%)

Shane Roller

Head 84.7% (norm 78.2%) · Body 9.5% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 5.8% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Tavares L/AAccLightweight med Roller L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 209 / 618 33.8% 37.9% 79 / 294 26.9% 37.9%
In the clinch 30 / 53 56.6% 67.3% 9 / 13 too few to rate 67.3%
On the ground 90 / 149 60.4% 69.1% 36 / 40 90.0% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 229 / 680 33.7% 35.0% 93 / 294 31.6% 35.0%
To the body 76 / 106 71.7% 69.1% 13 / 33 39.4% 69.1%
To the legs 24 / 34 70.6% 81.9% 18 / 20 too few to rate 81.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Tavares L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Roller L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 224 / 783 28.6% 38.9% 123 / 369 33.3% 38.9%
In the clinch 59 / 97 60.8% 68.6% 29 / 36 80.6% 68.6%
On the ground 96 / 139 69.1% 68.0% 18 / 35 51.4% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 243 / 834 29.1% 35.1% 122 / 369 33.1% 35.1%
To the body 69 / 102 67.6% 68.1% 23 / 41 56.1% 68.1%
To the legs 67 / 83 80.7% 81.5% 25 / 30 83.3% 81.5%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

4242.9% acc · 3.83/15 · norm 1.38
Takedowns landed
521.7% acc · 1.40/15 · norm 1.38
2262.9% def · norm 64.0%
Takedowns stopped
444.4% def · norm 64.0%
63:2738.6% of cage time · norm 19.5%
Control time
14:4927.7% of cage time · norm 19.5%
33:293:03 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control
13:253:45 per 15 · norm 2:46
161.46/15 · norm 0.49
Submission attempts
20.56/15 · norm 0.49

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Tavares has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.