BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Thiago Alves vs.
Seth Baczynski

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

15-12-0 Thiago Alves · UFC
5-6-0 Seth Baczynski · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

15-12-0
UFC record
5-6-0
Welterweight
Division (benchmark)
Welterweight
42.8
AgeΔ 2 yrs
44.8
5'9"
HeightΔ 6"
6'3"
70"
ReachΔ 5"
75"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
80
Layoff (months)Δ 55.8 mo
135.8
LLWLL
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLWL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Thiago Alves carries real power — 0.66 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.38 Welterweight norm.
Seth Baczynski is a submission threat — 0.75 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.45 Welterweight norm.
Thiago Alves rarely shoots — 0.71 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.27 Welterweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Thiago Alves

Full career not yet synced for Thiago Alves — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 7-9 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.7 wins over .500

Seth Baczynski

Full career not yet synced for Seth Baczynski — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 4-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.1 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

11063.73/min · norm 3.17
Sig. strikes landed
3103.08/min · norm 3.17
10153.42/min · norm 3.06
Sig. strikes absorbed
3163.14/min · norm 3.06
41.8%norm 44.9%
Striking accuracy
31.6%norm 44.9%
62.5%norm 55.25%
Striking defense
51.4%norm 55.25%
130.66/15 · norm 0.38
Knockdowns
20.30/15 · norm 0.38

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Thiago Alves

Distance 84.1% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 7.9% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 8.0% (norm 8.1%)

Seth Baczynski

Distance 82.3% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 11.0% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 6.7% (norm 8.1%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Thiago Alves

Head 73.8% (norm 78.2%) · Body 7.6% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 18.7% (norm 8.4%)

Seth Baczynski

Head 82.9% (norm 78.2%) · Body 12.3% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 4.8% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Alves L/AAccWelterweight med Baczynski L/AAccWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 867 / 2227 38.9% 38.6% 209 / 808 25.9% 38.6%
In the clinch 126 / 208 60.6% 67.8% 65 / 108 60.2% 67.8%
On the ground 113 / 213 53.1% 67.2% 36 / 66 54.5% 67.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 569 / 1953 29.1% 37.2% 206 / 814 25.3% 37.2%
To the body 150 / 200 75.0% 70.7% 70 / 121 57.9% 70.7%
To the legs 387 / 495 78.2% 82.9% 34 / 47 72.3% 82.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Welterweight: 182 fighters · Welterweight: 182 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Alves L/AOpp accWelterweight med vs Baczynski L/AOpp accWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 731 / 2283 32.0% 39.0% 209 / 495 42.2% 39.0%
In the clinch 159 / 251 63.3% 68.9% 67 / 94 71.3% 68.9%
On the ground 125 / 174 71.8% 68.0% 40 / 61 65.6% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 649 / 2203 29.5% 35.6% 150 / 455 33.0% 35.6%
To the body 218 / 312 69.9% 69.6% 81 / 93 87.1% 69.6%
To the legs 148 / 193 76.7% 82.1% 85 / 102 83.3% 82.1%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

1460.9% acc · 0.71/15 · norm 1.27
Takedowns landed
616.7% acc · 0.89/15 · norm 1.27
7763.1% def · norm 63.9%
Takedowns stopped
1548.4% def · norm 63.9%
30:5610.4% of cage time · norm 18.5%
Control time
21:1321.1% of cage time · norm 18.5%
76:113:51 per 15 · norm 3:15
Time under control
33:264:59 per 15 · norm 3:15
60.30/15 · norm 0.45
Submission attempts
50.75/15 · norm 0.45

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Alves has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.