BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Thiago Alves vs.
Jim Miller

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

15-12-0 Thiago Alves · UFC
28-18-0 (1 NC) Jim Miller · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

15-12-0
UFC record
28-18-0 (1 NC)
Welterweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
42.8
AgeΔ 0.1 yrs
42.9
5'9"
HeightΔ 1"
5'8"
70"
ReachΔ 1"
71"
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
80
Layoff (months)Δ 77.1 mo
2.9
LLWLL
Last 5 (newest first)
WLWLW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Jim Miller is a submission threat — 1.72 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.49 Lightweight norm.
Thiago Alves carries real power — 0.66 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.38 Welterweight norm.
Thiago Alves rarely shoots — 0.71 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.27 Welterweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Thiago Alves

Full career not yet synced for Thiago Alves — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 7-9 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.7 wins over .500

Jim Miller

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 2818
Tier 3 — regional circuit 111

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.25 · 28 tier-1/2 wins · 29 finish wins over 59 documented bouts

In the UFC: 16-17 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.4 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

11063.73/min · norm 3.17
Sig. strikes landed
13222.92/min · norm 3.42
10153.42/min · norm 3.06
Sig. strikes absorbed
15543.43/min · norm 3.37
41.8%norm 44.9%
Striking accuracy
42.1%norm 43.5%
62.5%norm 55.25%
Striking defense
56.7%norm 56.3%
130.66/15 · norm 0.38
Knockdowns
60.20/15 · norm 0.25

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Thiago Alves

Distance 84.1% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 7.9% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 8.0% (norm 8.1%)

Jim Miller

Distance 81.2% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 9.7% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 9.1% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Thiago Alves

Head 73.8% (norm 78.2%) · Body 7.6% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 18.7% (norm 8.4%)

Jim Miller

Head 77.5% (norm 78.2%) · Body 11.9% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 10.6% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Alves L/AAccWelterweight med Miller L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 867 / 2227 38.9% 38.6% 945 / 2547 37.1% 37.9%
In the clinch 126 / 208 60.6% 67.8% 194 / 303 64.0% 67.3%
On the ground 113 / 213 53.1% 67.2% 183 / 287 63.8% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 569 / 1953 29.1% 37.2% 775 / 2431 31.9% 35.0%
To the body 150 / 200 75.0% 70.7% 266 / 372 71.5% 69.1%
To the legs 387 / 495 78.2% 82.9% 281 / 334 84.1% 81.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Welterweight: 182 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Alves L/AOpp accWelterweight med vs Miller L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 731 / 2283 32.0% 39.0% 1185 / 3031 39.1% 38.9%
In the clinch 159 / 251 63.3% 68.9% 174 / 255 68.2% 68.6%
On the ground 125 / 174 71.8% 68.0% 195 / 307 63.5% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 649 / 2203 29.5% 35.6% 1055 / 2895 36.4% 35.1%
To the body 218 / 312 69.9% 69.6% 351 / 496 70.8% 68.1%
To the legs 148 / 193 76.7% 82.1% 148 / 202 73.3% 81.5%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

1460.9% acc · 0.71/15 · norm 1.27
Takedowns landed
4545.0% acc · 1.49/15 · norm 1.38
7763.1% def · norm 63.9%
Takedowns stopped
5047.6% def · norm 64.0%
30:5610.4% of cage time · norm 18.5%
Control time
94:1220.8% of cage time · norm 19.5%
76:113:51 per 15 · norm 3:15
Time under control
121:424:01 per 15 · norm 2:46
60.30/15 · norm 0.45
Submission attempts
521.72/15 · norm 0.49

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Miller has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.