BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Takashi Sato vs.
Miguel Baeza

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

2-5-0 Takashi Sato · UFC
3-4-0 Miguel Baeza · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

2-5-0
UFC record
3-4-0
Welterweight
Division (benchmark)
Welterweight
36.2
AgeΔ 2.2 yrs
34
5'10"
HeightΔ 4"
6'2"
73"
ReachΔ 1"
74"
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
38.6
Layoff (months)Δ 12.7 mo
25.9
LLLLW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLLW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Miguel Baeza is a submission threat — 1.99 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.45 Welterweight norm.
Miguel Baeza absorbs 5.91 sig. strikes per minute, well above the 3.06 Welterweight norm — hittable.
Takashi Sato rarely shoots — 0.76 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.27 Welterweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Takashi Sato

Full career not yet synced for Takashi Sato — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 1-4 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.4 wins over .500

Miguel Baeza

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 44
Tier 3 — regional circuit 60

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.09 · 4 tier-1/2 wins · 8 finish wins over 14 documented bouts

In the UFC: 2-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.4 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

1312.21/min · norm 3.17
Sig. strikes landed
2784.09/min · norm 3.17
2213.73/min · norm 3.06
Sig. strikes absorbed
4025.91/min · norm 3.06
41.6%norm 44.9%
Striking accuracy
47.8%norm 44.9%
44.1%norm 55.25%
Striking defense
49.3%norm 55.25%
20.51/15 · norm 0.38
Knockdowns
30.66/15 · norm 0.38

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Takashi Sato

Distance 76.5% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 7.3% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 16.2% (norm 8.1%)

Miguel Baeza

Distance 94.5% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 1.4% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 4.1% (norm 8.1%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Takashi Sato

Head 86.0% (norm 78.2%) · Body 11.1% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 2.9% (norm 8.4%)

Miguel Baeza

Head 65.6% (norm 78.2%) · Body 15.8% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 18.6% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Sato L/AAccWelterweight med Baeza L/AAccWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 76 / 241 31.5% 38.6% 254 / 550 46.2% 38.6%
In the clinch 17 / 23 too few to rate 67.8% 6 / 8 too few to rate 67.8%
On the ground 38 / 51 74.5% 67.2% 18 / 24 too few to rate 67.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 101 / 271 37.3% 37.2% 117 / 382 30.6% 37.2%
To the body 23 / 35 65.7% 70.7% 63 / 92 68.5% 70.7%
To the legs 7 / 9 too few to rate 82.9% 98 / 108 90.7% 82.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Welterweight: 182 fighters · Welterweight: 182 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Sato L/AOpp accWelterweight med vs Baeza L/AOpp accWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 133 / 291 45.7% 39.0% 229 / 581 39.4% 39.0%
In the clinch 33 / 41 80.5% 68.9% 24 / 32 75.0% 68.9%
On the ground 55 / 63 87.3% 68.0% 149 / 180 82.8% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 126 / 267 47.2% 35.6% 306 / 668 45.8% 35.6%
To the body 71 / 102 69.6% 69.6% 48 / 64 75.0% 69.6%
To the legs 24 / 26 92.3% 82.1% 48 / 61 78.7% 82.1%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

337.5% acc · 0.76/15 · norm 1.27
Takedowns landed
228.6% acc · 0.44/15 · norm 1.27
1460.9% def · norm 63.9%
Takedowns stopped
444.4% def · norm 63.9%
3:295.9% of cage time · norm 18.5%
Control time
2:534.2% of cage time · norm 18.5%
23:305:57 per 15 · norm 3:15
Time under control
12:092:40 per 15 · norm 3:15
00.00/15 · norm 0.45
Submission attempts
91.99/15 · norm 0.45

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Sato has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.