BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Stephen Thompson vs.
Rory MacDonald

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

12-9-1 Stephen Thompson · UFC
9-4-0 Rory MacDonald · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

12-9-1
UFC record
9-4-0
Welterweight
Division (benchmark)
Welterweight
43.5
AgeΔ 6.5 yrs
37
6'0"
HeightΔ 0"
6'0"
75"
ReachΔ 1"
76"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
12.8
Layoff (months)Δ 108.8 mo
121.6
LLLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
LLWWW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Stephen Thompson rarely shoots — 0.23 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.27 Welterweight norm.
Rory MacDonald hunts takedowns — 1.77 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.27 Welterweight norm.
Stephen Thompson outworks the Welterweight division — 4.05 sig. strikes landed per minute, vs a 3.17 norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Stephen Thompson

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 129
Tier 3 — regional circuit 50

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.07 · 12 tier-1/2 wins · 9 finish wins over 27 documented bouts

In the UFC: 10-9 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.9 wins over .500

Rory MacDonald

Full career not yet synced for Rory MacDonald — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 8-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.3 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

12934.05/min · norm 3.17
Sig. strikes landed
6673.75/min · norm 3.17
9593.00/min · norm 3.06
Sig. strikes absorbed
4992.80/min · norm 3.06
46.0%norm 44.9%
Striking accuracy
42.5%norm 44.9%
54.9%norm 55.25%
Striking defense
62.5%norm 55.25%
100.47/15 · norm 0.38
Knockdowns
10.08/15 · norm 0.38

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Stephen Thompson

Distance 93.2% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 4.2% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 2.6% (norm 8.1%)

Rory MacDonald

Distance 83.9% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 6.1% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 10.1% (norm 8.1%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Stephen Thompson

Head 79.0% (norm 78.2%) · Body 15.4% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 5.6% (norm 8.4%)

Rory MacDonald

Head 82.9% (norm 78.2%) · Body 13.6% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 3.5% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Thompson L/AAccWelterweight med MacDonald L/AAccWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1158 / 2618 44.2% 38.6% 509 / 1317 38.6% 38.6%
In the clinch 88 / 119 73.9% 67.8% 55 / 95 57.9% 67.8%
On the ground 47 / 73 64.4% 67.2% 103 / 158 65.2% 67.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 857 / 2220 38.6% 37.2% 499 / 1302 38.3% 37.2%
To the body 305 / 432 70.6% 70.7% 125 / 213 58.7% 70.7%
To the legs 131 / 158 82.9% 82.9% 43 / 55 78.2% 82.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Welterweight: 182 fighters · Welterweight: 182 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Thompson L/AOpp accWelterweight med vs MacDonald L/AOpp accWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 666 / 1731 38.5% 39.0% 370 / 1123 32.9% 39.0%
In the clinch 146 / 204 71.6% 68.9% 59 / 105 56.2% 68.9%
On the ground 147 / 191 77.0% 68.0% 70 / 101 69.3% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 512 / 1495 34.2% 35.6% 323 / 1073 30.1% 35.6%
To the body 172 / 276 62.3% 69.6% 72 / 126 57.1% 69.6%
To the legs 275 / 355 77.5% 82.1% 104 / 130 80.0% 82.1%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

535.7% acc · 0.23/15 · norm 1.27
Takedowns landed
2147.7% acc · 1.77/15 · norm 1.27
5063.3% def · norm 63.9%
Takedowns stopped
4088.9% def · norm 63.9%
19:186.0% of cage time · norm 18.5%
Control time
28:5216.2% of cage time · norm 18.5%
60:122:49 per 15 · norm 3:15
Time under control
20:471:45 per 15 · norm 3:15
00.00/15 · norm 0.45
Submission attempts
50.42/15 · norm 0.45

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Thompson has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.