BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Shane Roller vs.
Melvin Guillard

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

2-4-0 Shane Roller · UFC
12-9-0 (1 NC) Melvin Guillard · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

2-4-0
UFC record
12-9-0 (1 NC)
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
47.1
AgeΔ 3.7 yrs
43.4
5'10"
HeightΔ 1"
5'9"
72"
ReachΔ 1"
71"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
166
Layoff (months)Δ 17.1 mo
148.9
LWLLL
Last 5 (newest first)
LNCWLL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Melvin Guillard carries real power — 1.33 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.25 Lightweight norm.
Melvin Guillard is hard to hit — absorbs 1.83 sig. strikes per minute, vs a 3.37 Lightweight norm.
Shane Roller is wasteful with body shots — only 39% land, vs a 69% Lightweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Shane Roller

Full career not yet synced for Shane Roller — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 1-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.7 wins over .500

Melvin Guillard

Full career not yet synced for Melvin Guillard — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 4-6 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.3 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

1242.32/min · norm 3.42
Sig. strikes landed
4483.06/min · norm 3.42
1703.18/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed
2671.83/min · norm 3.37
35.7%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
39.7%norm 43.5%
61.4%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
68.1%norm 56.3%
10.28/15 · norm 0.25
Knockdowns
131.33/15 · norm 0.25

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Shane Roller

Distance 84.7% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 3.7% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 11.5% (norm 8.0%)

Melvin Guillard

Distance 79.4% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 8.5% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 12.1% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Shane Roller

Head 84.7% (norm 78.2%) · Body 9.5% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 5.8% (norm 7.9%)

Melvin Guillard

Head 82.3% (norm 78.2%) · Body 11.9% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 5.9% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Roller L/AAccLightweight med Guillard L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 79 / 294 26.9% 37.9% 312 / 896 34.8% 37.9%
In the clinch 9 / 13 too few to rate 67.3% 58 / 96 60.4% 67.3%
On the ground 36 / 40 90.0% 69.1% 78 / 136 57.4% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 93 / 294 31.6% 35.0% 300 / 928 32.3% 35.0%
To the body 13 / 33 39.4% 69.1% 90 / 134 67.2% 69.1%
To the legs 18 / 20 too few to rate 81.9% 58 / 66 87.9% 81.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Roller L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Guillard L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 123 / 369 33.3% 38.9% 219 / 732 29.9% 38.9%
In the clinch 29 / 36 80.6% 68.6% 36 / 75 48.0% 68.6%
On the ground 18 / 35 51.4% 68.0% 12 / 31 38.7% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 122 / 369 33.1% 35.1% 123 / 604 20.4% 35.1%
To the body 23 / 41 56.1% 68.1% 59 / 111 53.2% 68.1%
To the legs 25 / 30 83.3% 81.5% 85 / 123 69.1% 81.5%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

521.7% acc · 1.40/15 · norm 1.38
Takedowns landed
1466.7% acc · 1.44/15 · norm 1.38
444.4% def · norm 64.0%
Takedowns stopped
5865.2% def · norm 64.0%
14:4927.7% of cage time · norm 19.5%
Control time
12:558.8% of cage time · norm 19.5%
13:253:45 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control
34:063:29 per 15 · norm 2:46
20.56/15 · norm 0.49
Submission attempts
20.21/15 · norm 0.49

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Guillard has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.