BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Shane Nelson vs.
Aaron Riley

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

2-2-0 Shane Nelson · UFC
3-6-0 Aaron Riley · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

2-2-0
UFC record
3-6-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
41.7
AgeΔ 4 yrs
45.7
5'9"
HeightΔ 1"
5'8"
70"
ReachΔ 1"
69"
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
199.8
Layoff (months)Δ 43.5 mo
156.3
LLWW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLWLW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Shane Nelson is a submission threat — 1.64 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.49 Lightweight norm.
Aaron Riley defends leg kicks well — opponents land just 52%, vs a 82% Lightweight norm.
Aaron Riley is wasteful with head shots — only 23% land, vs a 35% Lightweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Shane Nelson

Full career not yet synced for Shane Nelson — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record -0.5 wins over .500

Aaron Riley

Full career not yet synced for Aaron Riley — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 1-4 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.6 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

631.38/min · norm 3.42
Sig. strikes landed
3143.29/min · norm 3.42
1302.84/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed
3733.91/min · norm 3.37
31.0%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
34.7%norm 43.5%
61.2%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
60.9%norm 56.3%
10.33/15 · norm 0.25
Knockdowns
00.00/15 · norm 0.25

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Shane Nelson

Distance 71.4% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 15.8% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 12.8% (norm 8.0%)

Aaron Riley

Distance 79.0% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 17.7% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 3.3% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Shane Nelson

Head 83.7% (norm 78.2%) · Body 12.8% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 3.4% (norm 7.9%)

Aaron Riley

Head 72.2% (norm 78.2%) · Body 15.7% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 12.1% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Nelson L/AAccLightweight med Riley L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 36 / 145 24.8% 37.9% 190 / 714 26.6% 37.9%
In the clinch 15 / 32 46.9% 67.3% 102 / 160 63.8% 67.3%
On the ground 12 / 26 46.2% 69.1% 22 / 30 73.3% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 39 / 170 22.9% 35.0% 147 / 653 22.5% 35.0%
To the body 20 / 26 76.9% 69.1% 92 / 142 64.8% 69.1%
To the legs 4 / 7 too few to rate 81.9% 75 / 109 68.8% 81.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Nelson L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Riley L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 51 / 189 27.0% 38.9% 259 / 761 34.0% 38.9%
In the clinch 48 / 83 57.8% 68.6% 100 / 168 59.5% 68.6%
On the ground 31 / 63 49.2% 68.0% 14 / 25 56.0% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 77 / 261 29.5% 35.1% 246 / 776 31.7% 35.1%
To the body 33 / 47 70.2% 68.1% 99 / 124 79.8% 68.1%
To the legs 20 / 27 74.1% 81.5% 28 / 54 51.9% 81.5%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

418.2% acc · 1.31/15 · norm 1.38
Takedowns landed
834.8% acc · 1.26/15 · norm 1.38
654.5% def · norm 64.0%
Takedowns stopped
1760.7% def · norm 64.0%
9:2220.5% of cage time · norm 19.5%
Control time
18:3519.5% of cage time · norm 19.5%
17:225:41 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control
6:421:03 per 15 · norm 2:46
51.64/15 · norm 0.49
Submission attempts
10.16/15 · norm 0.49

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Riley has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.