BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Sage Northcutt vs.
Thibault Gouti

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

6-2-0 Sage Northcutt · UFC
1-5-0 Thibault Gouti · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

6-2-0
UFC record
1-5-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
30
AgeΔ 9 yrs
39
6'0"
HeightΔ 2"
5'10"
71"
ReachΔ 1"
72"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
96.7
Layoff (months)Δ 3.4 mo
93.3
WWWLW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLWLL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Thibault Gouti absorbs 5.64 sig. strikes per minute, well above the 3.37 Lightweight norm — hittable.
Sage Northcutt carries real power — 0.40 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.25 Lightweight norm.
Sage Northcutt is hard to hit — absorbs 1.96 sig. strikes per minute, vs a 3.37 Lightweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Sage Northcutt

Full career not yet synced for Sage Northcutt — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 1-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record -0.1 wins over .500

Thibault Gouti

Full career not yet synced for Thibault Gouti — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.5 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

2673.58/min · norm 3.42
Sig. strikes landed
1803.68/min · norm 3.42
1461.96/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed
2765.64/min · norm 3.37
52.4%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
34.5%norm 43.5%
59.0%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
50.3%norm 56.3%
20.40/15 · norm 0.25
Knockdowns
10.31/15 · norm 0.25

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Sage Northcutt

Distance 74.7% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 12.4% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 12.9% (norm 8.0%)

Thibault Gouti

Distance 89.3% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 6.3% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 4.4% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Sage Northcutt

Head 76.5% (norm 78.2%) · Body 13.7% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 9.8% (norm 7.9%)

Thibault Gouti

Head 87.2% (norm 78.2%) · Body 7.7% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 5.2% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Northcutt L/AAccLightweight med Gouti L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 162 / 381 42.5% 37.9% 145 / 466 31.1% 37.9%
In the clinch 51 / 63 81.0% 67.3% 17 / 33 51.5% 67.3%
On the ground 54 / 66 81.8% 69.1% 18 / 23 too few to rate 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 173 / 390 44.4% 35.0% 140 / 455 30.8% 35.0%
To the body 52 / 70 74.3% 69.1% 22 / 40 55.0% 69.1%
To the legs 42 / 50 84.0% 81.9% 18 / 27 66.7% 81.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Northcutt L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Gouti L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 107 / 296 36.1% 38.9% 178 / 405 44.0% 38.9%
In the clinch 6 / 12 too few to rate 68.6% 30 / 47 63.8% 68.6%
On the ground 33 / 48 68.8% 68.0% 68 / 103 66.0% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 87 / 262 33.2% 35.1% 202 / 455 44.4% 35.1%
To the body 15 / 31 48.4% 68.1% 48 / 70 68.6% 68.1%
To the legs 44 / 63 69.8% 81.5% 26 / 30 86.7% 81.5%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

934.6% acc · 1.81/15 · norm 1.38
Takedowns landed
480.0% acc · 1.23/15 · norm 1.38
1041.7% def · norm 64.0%
Takedowns stopped
2083.3% def · norm 64.0%
12:5717.4% of cage time · norm 19.5%
Control time
7:0814.6% of cage time · norm 19.5%
28:595:49 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control
13:044:00 per 15 · norm 2:46
30.60/15 · norm 0.49
Submission attempts
10.31/15 · norm 0.49

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Northcutt has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.