Ryan McGillivray vs.
Shamar Bailey
Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.
The men, measured.
Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.
What the numbers say.
Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.
Who did they actually beat?
Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.
Ryan McGillivray
Full career not yet synced for Ryan McGillivray — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).
In the UFC: 0-0 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.0 wins over .500
Shamar Bailey
Full career not yet synced for Shamar Bailey — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).
In the UFC: 0-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.7 wins over .500
The stand-up battle.
Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.
Significant strikes — landed & absorbed
Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)
Ryan McGillivray
Distance 98.9% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 0.0% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 1.1% (norm 8.1%)
Shamar Bailey
Distance 91.0% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 4.3% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 4.7% (norm 8.0%)
What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)
Ryan McGillivray
Head 95.6% (norm 78.2%) · Body 3.3% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 1.1% (norm 8.4%)
Shamar Bailey
Head 82.1% (norm 78.2%) · Body 9.0% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 9.0% (norm 7.9%)
Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone
Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.
| Zone | McGillivray L/A | Acc | Welterweight med | Bailey L/A | Acc | Lightweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 18 / 90 | 20.0% | 38.6% | 53 / 254 | 20.9% | 37.9% |
| In the clinch | 0 / 0 | too few to rate | 67.8% | 11 / 12 | too few to rate | 67.3% |
| On the ground | 1 / 1 | too few to rate | 67.2% | 7 / 13 | too few to rate | 69.1% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 17 / 87 | 19.5% | 37.2% | 43 / 229 | 18.8% | 35.0% |
| To the body | 2 / 3 | too few to rate | 70.7% | 14 / 25 | 56.0% | 69.1% |
| To the legs | 0 / 1 | too few to rate | 82.9% | 14 / 25 | 56.0% | 81.9% |
Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Welterweight: 182 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).
What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man
Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.
| Zone | vs McGillivray L/A | Opp acc | Welterweight med | vs Bailey L/A | Opp acc | Lightweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 20 / 49 | 40.8% | 39.0% | 110 / 438 | 25.1% | 38.9% |
| In the clinch | 8 / 9 | too few to rate | 68.9% | 2 / 5 | too few to rate | 68.6% |
| On the ground | 5 / 11 | too few to rate | 68.0% | 21 / 33 | 63.6% | 68.0% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 21 / 56 | 37.5% | 35.6% | 121 / 452 | 26.8% | 35.1% |
| To the body | 9 / 10 | too few to rate | 69.6% | 9 / 19 | too few to rate | 68.1% |
| To the legs | 3 / 3 | too few to rate | 82.1% | 3 / 5 | too few to rate | 81.5% |
The ground war.
Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.
Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Bailey has more cage time on record.