BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Roy Nelson vs.
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

9-10-0 Roy Nelson · UFC
5-6-0 Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

9-10-0
UFC record
5-6-0
Heavyweight
Division (benchmark)
Heavyweight
50.1
AgeΔ 0.1 yrs
50.2
6'0"
HeightΔ 3"
6'3"
73"
ReachΔ 4"
77"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
111.7
Layoff (months)Δ 20.5 mo
132.2
LWLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLWL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira is a submission threat — 1.61 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.16 Heavyweight norm.
Roy Nelson carries real power — 0.67 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.28 Heavyweight norm.
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira carries real power — 0.64 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.28 Heavyweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Roy Nelson

Full career not yet synced for Roy Nelson — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 5-8 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.0 wins over .500

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

Full career not yet synced for Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 3-6 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.7 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

4392.17/min · norm 3.36
Sig. strikes landed
2642.83/min · norm 3.36
9854.86/min · norm 3.19
Sig. strikes absorbed
3603.86/min · norm 3.19
37.3%norm 47.8%
Striking accuracy
40.8%norm 47.8%
45.6%norm 52.5%
Striking defense
56.1%norm 52.5%
90.67/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
40.64/15 · norm 0.28

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Roy Nelson

Distance 82.5% (norm 79.5%) · Clinch 13.0% (norm 9.8%) · Ground 4.5% (norm 9.3%)

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

Distance 87.3% (norm 79.5%) · Clinch 9.9% (norm 9.8%) · Ground 2.8% (norm 9.3%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Roy Nelson

Head 89.1% (norm 79.2%) · Body 6.3% (norm 11.5%) · Legs 4.6% (norm 7.6%)

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

Head 90.6% (norm 79.2%) · Body 7.4% (norm 11.5%) · Legs 2.0% (norm 7.6%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Nelson L/AAccHeavyweight med Nogueira L/AAccHeavyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 315 / 970 32.5% 40.1% 204 / 565 36.1% 40.1%
In the clinch 83 / 153 54.2% 70.6% 49 / 64 76.6% 70.6%
On the ground 41 / 53 77.4% 70.2% 11 / 18 too few to rate 70.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 341 / 1048 32.5% 38.9% 212 / 586 36.2% 38.9%
To the body 53 / 74 71.6% 76.8% 39 / 48 81.2% 76.8%
To the legs 45 / 54 83.3% 87.8% 13 / 13 too few to rate 87.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Heavyweight: 93 fighters · Heavyweight: 93 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Nelson L/AOpp accHeavyweight med vs Nogueira L/AOpp accHeavyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 710 / 1438 49.4% 40.7% 273 / 682 40.0% 40.7%
In the clinch 259 / 354 73.2% 70.6% 43 / 68 63.2% 70.6%
On the ground 16 / 18 too few to rate 72.0% 44 / 70 62.9% 72.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 640 / 1402 45.6% 38.8% 246 / 681 36.1% 38.8%
To the body 237 / 293 80.9% 75.1% 54 / 71 76.1% 75.1%
To the legs 108 / 115 93.9% 84.4% 60 / 68 88.2% 84.4%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

1629.6% acc · 1.18/15 · norm 0.95
Takedowns landed
821.6% acc · 1.29/15 · norm 0.95
2064.5% def · norm 64.3%
Takedowns stopped
337.5% def · norm 64.3%
41:0420.3% of cage time · norm 17.2%
Control time
23:2525.1% of cage time · norm 17.2%
24:411:49 per 15 · norm 2:28
Time under control
14:102:16 per 15 · norm 2:28
10.07/15 · norm 0.16
Submission attempts
101.61/15 · norm 0.16

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Nelson has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.