BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Roxanne Modafferi vs.
Antonina Shevchenko

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

4-8-0 Roxanne Modafferi · UFC
4-4-0 Antonina Shevchenko · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

4-8-0
UFC record
4-4-0
Women's Flyweight
Division (benchmark)
Women's Flyweight
43.9
AgeΔ 2.2 yrs
41.7
5'7"
HeightΔ 1"
5'8"
69"
ReachΔ 2"
67"
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
53.7
Layoff (months)Δ 4.8 mo
48.9
LLLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
WLLWL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Antonina Shevchenko rarely shoots — 0.47 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.02 Women's Flyweight norm.
Roxanne Modafferi absorbs 5.72 sig. strikes per minute, well above the 3.81 Women's Flyweight norm — hittable.
Roxanne Modafferi's takedown defense leaks — 30% stopped, vs a 59% Women's Flyweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Roxanne Modafferi

Full career not yet synced for Roxanne Modafferi — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 3-4 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.9 wins over .500

Antonina Shevchenko

Full career not yet synced for Antonina Shevchenko — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 1-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.1 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

6223.39/min · norm 3.91
Sig. strikes landed
3283.43/min · norm 3.91
10495.72/min · norm 3.81
Sig. strikes absorbed
2903.04/min · norm 3.81
30.3%norm 44.9%
Striking accuracy
53.3%norm 44.9%
52.3%norm 55.95%
Striking defense
52.8%norm 55.95%
10.08/15 · norm 0.09
Knockdowns
00.00/15 · norm 0.09

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Roxanne Modafferi

Distance 93.4% (norm 87.6%) · Clinch 2.6% (norm 7.3%) · Ground 3.9% (norm 4.9%)

Antonina Shevchenko

Distance 76.4% (norm 87.6%) · Clinch 13.0% (norm 7.3%) · Ground 10.6% (norm 4.9%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Roxanne Modafferi

Head 92.2% (norm 78.1%) · Body 5.5% (norm 14.2%) · Legs 2.3% (norm 7.7%)

Antonina Shevchenko

Head 75.8% (norm 78.1%) · Body 17.6% (norm 14.2%) · Legs 6.7% (norm 7.7%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Modafferi L/AAccWomen's Flyweight med Shevchenko L/AAccWomen's Flyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 532 / 1920 27.7% 39.9% 218 / 470 46.4% 39.9%
In the clinch 35 / 54 64.8% 73.3% 65 / 80 81.2% 73.3%
On the ground 55 / 81 67.9% 74.7% 45 / 65 69.2% 74.7%
BY TARGET
To the head 523 / 1894 27.6% 34.9% 211 / 466 45.3% 34.9%
To the body 62 / 114 54.4% 69.5% 80 / 108 74.1% 69.5%
To the legs 37 / 47 78.7% 82.6% 37 / 41 90.2% 82.6%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Women's Flyweight: 46 fighters · Women's Flyweight: 46 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Modafferi L/AOpp accWomen's Flyweight med vs Shevchenko L/AOpp accWomen's Flyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 906 / 1995 45.4% 38.8% 139 / 425 32.7% 38.8%
In the clinch 72 / 94 76.6% 74.1% 32 / 42 76.2% 74.1%
On the ground 71 / 109 65.1% 73.4% 119 / 148 80.4% 73.4%
BY TARGET
To the head 799 / 1888 42.3% 35.3% 207 / 490 42.2% 35.3%
To the body 126 / 181 69.6% 69.0% 45 / 67 67.2% 69.0%
To the legs 124 / 129 96.1% 78.7% 38 / 58 65.5% 78.7%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

1627.6% acc · 1.31/15 · norm 1.02
Takedowns landed
342.9% acc · 0.47/15 · norm 1.02
930.0% def · norm 58.95%
Takedowns stopped
1648.5% def · norm 58.95%
49:3527.0% of cage time · norm 19.15%
Control time
22:1923.4% of cage time · norm 19.15%
36:543:00 per 15 · norm 3:03
Time under control
34:585:29 per 15 · norm 3:03
10.08/15 · norm 0.32
Submission attempts
30.47/15 · norm 0.32

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Modafferi has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.