BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Roxanne Modafferi vs.
Andrea Lee

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

4-8-0 Roxanne Modafferi · UFC
5-9-0 Andrea Lee · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

4-8-0
UFC record
5-9-0
Women's Flyweight
Division (benchmark)
Women's Flyweight
43.9
AgeΔ 6.4 yrs
37.5
5'7"
HeightΔ 1"
5'6"
69"
ReachΔ 0"
69"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
53.7
Layoff (months)Δ 36.5 mo
17.2
LLLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLLL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Andrea Lee is a submission threat — 0.60 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.32 Women's Flyweight norm.
Andrea Lee hunts takedowns — 1.65 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.02 Women's Flyweight norm.
Roxanne Modafferi absorbs 5.72 sig. strikes per minute, well above the 3.81 Women's Flyweight norm — hittable.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Roxanne Modafferi

Full career not yet synced for Roxanne Modafferi — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 3-4 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.9 wins over .500

Andrea Lee

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 59
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 30
Tier 3 — regional circuit 52

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.61 · 8 tier-1/2 wins · 7 finish wins over 24 documented bouts

In the UFC: 3-6 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.3 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

6223.39/min · norm 3.91
Sig. strikes landed
9244.62/min · norm 3.91
10495.72/min · norm 3.81
Sig. strikes absorbed
7823.91/min · norm 3.81
30.3%norm 44.9%
Striking accuracy
45.5%norm 44.9%
52.3%norm 55.95%
Striking defense
61.5%norm 55.95%
10.08/15 · norm 0.09
Knockdowns
10.08/15 · norm 0.09

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Roxanne Modafferi

Distance 93.4% (norm 87.6%) · Clinch 2.6% (norm 7.3%) · Ground 3.9% (norm 4.9%)

Andrea Lee

Distance 89.4% (norm 87.6%) · Clinch 6.2% (norm 7.3%) · Ground 4.4% (norm 4.9%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Roxanne Modafferi

Head 92.2% (norm 78.1%) · Body 5.5% (norm 14.2%) · Legs 2.3% (norm 7.7%)

Andrea Lee

Head 65.6% (norm 78.1%) · Body 22.1% (norm 14.2%) · Legs 12.3% (norm 7.7%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Modafferi L/AAccWomen's Flyweight med Lee L/AAccWomen's Flyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 532 / 1920 27.7% 39.9% 758 / 1817 41.7% 39.9%
In the clinch 35 / 54 64.8% 73.3% 100 / 125 80.0% 73.3%
On the ground 55 / 81 67.9% 74.7% 66 / 90 73.3% 74.7%
BY TARGET
To the head 523 / 1894 27.6% 34.9% 414 / 1332 31.1% 34.9%
To the body 62 / 114 54.4% 69.5% 309 / 450 68.7% 69.5%
To the legs 37 / 47 78.7% 82.6% 201 / 250 80.4% 82.6%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Women's Flyweight: 46 fighters · Women's Flyweight: 46 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Modafferi L/AOpp accWomen's Flyweight med vs Lee L/AOpp accWomen's Flyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 906 / 1995 45.4% 38.8% 704 / 1906 36.9% 38.8%
In the clinch 72 / 94 76.6% 74.1% 54 / 83 65.1% 74.1%
On the ground 71 / 109 65.1% 73.4% 24 / 40 60.0% 73.4%
BY TARGET
To the head 799 / 1888 42.3% 35.3% 486 / 1574 30.9% 35.3%
To the body 126 / 181 69.6% 69.0% 156 / 294 53.1% 69.0%
To the legs 124 / 129 96.1% 78.7% 140 / 161 87.0% 78.7%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

1627.6% acc · 1.31/15 · norm 1.02
Takedowns landed
2252.4% acc · 1.65/15 · norm 1.02
930.0% def · norm 58.95%
Takedowns stopped
3553.8% def · norm 58.95%
49:3527.0% of cage time · norm 19.15%
Control time
30:2715.2% of cage time · norm 19.15%
36:543:00 per 15 · norm 3:03
Time under control
38:252:52 per 15 · norm 3:03
10.08/15 · norm 0.32
Submission attempts
80.60/15 · norm 0.32

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Lee has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.