BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Rogerio Nogueira vs.
Ryan Spann

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

6-7-0 Rogerio Nogueira · UFC
10-6-0 Ryan Spann · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

6-7-0
UFC record
10-6-0
Light Heavyweight
Division (benchmark)
Light Heavyweight
50.2
AgeΔ 15.2 yrs
35
6'2"
HeightΔ 3"
6'5"
75"
ReachΔ 4"
79"
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
72.4
Layoff (months)Δ 69 mo
3.4
LLWLW
Last 5 (newest first)
WWLWL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Ryan Spann is a submission threat — 1.52 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.27 Light Heavyweight norm.
Ryan Spann carries real power — 0.91 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.40 Light Heavyweight norm.
Rogerio Nogueira rarely shoots — 0.12 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.87 Light Heavyweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Rogerio Nogueira

Full career not yet synced for Rogerio Nogueira — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 6-6 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.6 wins over .500

Ryan Spann

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 117
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 53
Tier 3 — regional circuit 81

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.1 · 16 tier-1/2 wins · 21 finish wins over 35 documented bouts

In the UFC: 6-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.4 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

3412.78/min · norm 3.41
Sig. strikes landed
3043.08/min · norm 3.41
3963.23/min · norm 3.35
Sig. strikes absorbed
3803.85/min · norm 3.35
36.6%norm 48.3%
Striking accuracy
39.5%norm 48.3%
54.7%norm 52.9%
Striking defense
43.6%norm 52.9%
40.49/15 · norm 0.40
Knockdowns
60.91/15 · norm 0.40

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Rogerio Nogueira

Distance 84.2% (norm 80.5%) · Clinch 7.9% (norm 8.6%) · Ground 7.8% (norm 10.4%)

Ryan Spann

Distance 85.2% (norm 80.5%) · Clinch 3.8% (norm 8.6%) · Ground 11.0% (norm 10.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Rogerio Nogueira

Head 88.2% (norm 79.2%) · Body 10.1% (norm 11.7%) · Legs 1.7% (norm 9.7%)

Ryan Spann

Head 87.0% (norm 79.2%) · Body 10.4% (norm 11.7%) · Legs 2.6% (norm 9.7%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Nogueira L/AAccLight Heavyweight med Spann L/AAccLight Heavyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 245 / 785 31.2% 41.4% 219 / 656 33.4% 41.4%
In the clinch 44 / 74 59.5% 70.9% 22 / 29 75.9% 70.9%
On the ground 52 / 73 71.2% 72.3% 63 / 85 74.1% 72.3%
BY TARGET
To the head 262 / 822 31.9% 38.9% 229 / 670 34.2% 38.9%
To the body 64 / 94 68.1% 71.9% 56 / 80 70.0% 71.9%
To the legs 15 / 16 too few to rate 81.8% 19 / 20 too few to rate 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Light Heavyweight: 93 fighters · Light Heavyweight: 93 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Nogueira L/AOpp accLight Heavyweight med vs Spann L/AOpp accLight Heavyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 235 / 641 36.7% 40.4% 291 / 556 52.3% 40.4%
In the clinch 37 / 70 52.9% 68.7% 24 / 35 68.6% 68.7%
On the ground 124 / 163 76.1% 70.4% 65 / 83 78.3% 70.4%
BY TARGET
To the head 264 / 704 37.5% 37.5% 258 / 532 48.5% 37.5%
To the body 69 / 92 75.0% 72.3% 43 / 54 79.6% 72.3%
To the legs 63 / 78 80.8% 83.0% 79 / 88 89.8% 83.0%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

1100.0% acc · 0.12/15 · norm 0.87
Takedowns landed
834.8% acc · 1.22/15 · norm 0.87
4164.1% def · norm 66.7%
Takedowns stopped
1858.1% def · norm 66.7%
6:285.3% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
23:1423.5% of cage time · norm 16.5%
35:274:19 per 15 · norm 2:48
Time under control
15:442:23 per 15 · norm 2:48
20.24/15 · norm 0.27
Submission attempts
101.52/15 · norm 0.27

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Spann has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.