BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Robbie Lawler vs.
Aaron Riley

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

15-10-0 Robbie Lawler · UFC
3-6-0 Aaron Riley · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

15-10-0
UFC record
3-6-0
Welterweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
44.4
AgeΔ 1.3 yrs
45.7
5'11"
HeightΔ 3"
5'8"
74"
ReachΔ 5"
69"
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
37
Layoff (months)Δ 119.3 mo
156.3
WLWLL
Last 5 (newest first)
LLWLW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Robbie Lawler absorbs 5.18 sig. strikes per minute, well above the 3.06 Welterweight norm — hittable.
Robbie Lawler rarely shoots — 0.80 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.27 Welterweight norm.
Aaron Riley defends leg kicks well — opponents land just 52%, vs a 82% Lightweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Robbie Lawler

Full career not yet synced for Robbie Lawler — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 10-8 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +4.1 wins over .500

Aaron Riley

Full career not yet synced for Aaron Riley — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 1-4 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.6 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

13344.19/min · norm 3.17
Sig. strikes landed
3143.29/min · norm 3.42
16505.18/min · norm 3.06
Sig. strikes absorbed
3733.91/min · norm 3.37
48.3%norm 44.9%
Striking accuracy
34.7%norm 43.5%
58.3%norm 55.25%
Striking defense
60.9%norm 56.3%
100.47/15 · norm 0.38
Knockdowns
00.00/15 · norm 0.25

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Robbie Lawler

Distance 78.8% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 14.6% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 6.6% (norm 8.1%)

Aaron Riley

Distance 79.0% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 17.7% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 3.3% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Robbie Lawler

Head 85.9% (norm 78.2%) · Body 11.7% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 2.4% (norm 8.4%)

Aaron Riley

Head 72.2% (norm 78.2%) · Body 15.7% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 12.1% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Lawler L/AAccWelterweight med Riley L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 927 / 2176 42.6% 38.6% 190 / 714 26.6% 37.9%
In the clinch 288 / 403 71.5% 67.8% 102 / 160 63.8% 67.3%
On the ground 119 / 181 65.7% 67.2% 22 / 30 73.3% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 1012 / 2371 42.7% 37.2% 147 / 653 22.5% 35.0%
To the body 265 / 323 82.0% 70.7% 92 / 142 64.8% 69.1%
To the legs 57 / 66 86.4% 82.9% 75 / 109 68.8% 81.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Welterweight: 182 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Lawler L/AOpp accWelterweight med vs Riley L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1319 / 3467 38.0% 39.0% 259 / 761 34.0% 38.9%
In the clinch 293 / 437 67.0% 68.9% 100 / 168 59.5% 68.6%
On the ground 38 / 53 71.7% 68.0% 14 / 25 56.0% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 1049 / 3155 33.2% 35.6% 246 / 776 31.7% 35.1%
To the body 332 / 468 70.9% 69.6% 99 / 124 79.8% 68.1%
To the legs 269 / 334 80.5% 82.1% 28 / 54 51.9% 81.5%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

1773.9% acc · 0.80/15 · norm 1.27
Takedowns landed
834.8% acc · 1.26/15 · norm 1.38
7064.8% def · norm 63.9%
Takedowns stopped
1760.7% def · norm 64.0%
32:0910.1% of cage time · norm 18.5%
Control time
18:3519.5% of cage time · norm 19.5%
56:212:39 per 15 · norm 3:15
Time under control
6:421:03 per 15 · norm 2:46
00.00/15 · norm 0.45
Submission attempts
10.16/15 · norm 0.49

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Lawler has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.