BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Rick Story vs.
Leonardo Mafra

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

12-7-0 Rick Story · UFC
1-3-0 Leonardo Mafra · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

12-7-0
UFC record
1-3-0
Welterweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
41.9
AgeΔ 4.6 yrs
37.3
5'9"
HeightΔ 1"
5'10"
71"
ReachΔ 1"
70"
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
119.5
Layoff (months)Δ 13.1 mo
132.6
LWWWL
Last 5 (newest first)
LWLL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Rick Story hunts takedowns — 2.53 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.27 Welterweight norm.
Rick Story is a submission threat — 0.89 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.45 Welterweight norm.
Opponents land 54% of their head shots on Leonardo Mafra, vs a 35% Lightweight norm — a hole in the guard.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Rick Story

Full career not yet synced for Rick Story — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 8-7 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.8 wins over .500

Leonardo Mafra

Full career not yet synced for Leonardo Mafra — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.8 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

9013.80/min · norm 3.17
Sig. strikes landed
1614.55/min · norm 3.42
5152.17/min · norm 3.06
Sig. strikes absorbed
1554.38/min · norm 3.37
41.8%norm 44.9%
Striking accuracy
48.5%norm 43.5%
62.5%norm 55.25%
Striking defense
43.6%norm 56.3%
60.38/15 · norm 0.38
Knockdowns
00.00/15 · norm 0.25

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Rick Story

Distance 74.4% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 14.5% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 11.1% (norm 8.1%)

Leonardo Mafra

Distance 86.1% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 6.3% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 7.5% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Rick Story

Head 73.5% (norm 78.2%) · Body 20.0% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 6.5% (norm 8.4%)

Leonardo Mafra

Head 74.1% (norm 78.2%) · Body 11.7% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 14.2% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Story L/AAccWelterweight med Mafra L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 548 / 1606 34.1% 38.6% 129 / 286 45.1% 37.9%
In the clinch 201 / 312 64.4% 67.8% 14 / 21 too few to rate 67.3%
On the ground 152 / 240 63.3% 67.2% 18 / 25 72.0% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 465 / 1586 29.3% 37.2% 97 / 246 39.4% 35.0%
To the body 312 / 432 72.2% 70.7% 24 / 39 61.5% 69.1%
To the legs 124 / 140 88.6% 82.9% 40 / 47 85.1% 81.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Welterweight: 182 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Story L/AOpp accWelterweight med vs Mafra L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 395 / 1173 33.7% 39.0% 102 / 203 50.2% 38.9%
In the clinch 94 / 165 57.0% 68.9% 7 / 12 too few to rate 68.6%
On the ground 26 / 36 72.2% 68.0% 46 / 60 76.7% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 336 / 1118 30.1% 35.6% 115 / 213 54.0% 35.1%
To the body 108 / 168 64.3% 69.6% 32 / 51 62.7% 68.1%
To the legs 71 / 88 80.7% 82.1% 8 / 11 too few to rate 81.5%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

4048.2% acc · 2.53/15 · norm 1.27
Takedowns landed
583.3% acc · 2.12/15 · norm 1.38
4863.2% def · norm 63.9%
Takedowns stopped
969.2% def · norm 64.0%
74:5431.6% of cage time · norm 18.5%
Control time
6:5119.4% of cage time · norm 19.5%
39:212:29 per 15 · norm 3:15
Time under control
11:414:57 per 15 · norm 2:46
140.89/15 · norm 0.45
Submission attempts
10.42/15 · norm 0.49

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Story has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.